Will a 0.25% Fed Cut Sustain Housing Stock Rallies?

What smart money does when the Fed trims 25 bps

Smart money doesn’t high-five a 25 bp cut. It traces the plumbing. Who actually pays less because the Fed shaved a quarter-point off the top? Pros map the transmission path: fed funds to front-end funding, to MBS yields and OAS, to 30-year mortgage quotes, to monthly payments, to builder orders, and only then to equity multiples. That’s the order. Cheering the headline usually gets you the first 30 minutes. The rest of the quarter comes from the pipes.

Two quick anchors to keep us honest: mortgage rates don’t key off fed funds directly, they key off MBS/UST levels and spreads. In 2019, the current-coupon MBS spread to the 10-year ran near ~160 bps. In late 2023, that spread blew out north of 300 bps (ICE/BofA MBS OAS data), which is why 30-year fixed quotes flirted with the high-7s even as the 10-year wasn’t “that” high. Last year, spreads improved but stayed sticky versus pre-2020 norms. The point: a 25 bp policy trim only helps if it tightens financial conditions through MBS, not just the front end.

What you’ll get from this section: a clear frame for whether a single 0.25% cut can actually extend housing stock rallies in Q4 2025. We’ll look at mortgage rate path and MBS spreads (not just the fed funds print), stack that against positioning and valuation that markets priced earlier this year, and separate the near-term trading pops from the 6-12 month earnings math. Two different games, and they’re often at odds for a while.

• Rates mechanics, not headlines: A 25 bp cut is 0.25%, sure, but the pass-through to a 30-year mortgage depends on where the current-coupon MBS clears and whether spreads compress. If MBS OAS tightens 10-15 bps on relief, you might see only ~5-10 bps at the retail rate sheet near-term.
• Positioning and valuation: Housing equities already rallied into Q4 on the “easing later this year” script. If homebuilder ETFs were discounting another 50-75 bps into mid-2026 earnings earlier this year, one small step from the Fed won’t re-rate the group unless the mortgage tape actually follows through.
• Trading pop vs earnings math: Near-term, you can get a squeeze. But 6-12 month EPS depends on orders, cycle times, and incentives. Example: moving a $400,000 loan from 7.25% to 7.00% trims the monthly P&I by roughly $60-$70. Helpful for sentiment; not a silver bullet if inventory is thin and incentives are already baked into margins.
• Rule #1: a 25 bps cut helps the vibe, but affordability and supply constraints decide durability. The market knows this. It rewards rate relief if it nudges payments meaningfully and brings sidelined buyers back without crushing builder margins.

One more nuance because it matters: spreads have been the swing factor since 2023. That’s why pros keep a live screen on MBS current coupon, OAS, and lock volumes. If the cut tightens mortgage credit conditions enough to shave even 10-20 bps off rate sheets and steadies builder backlogs, okay, the Q4 rally can breathe. If not, you’ve got a classic “pop, fade, wait for the next print.” It’s messy, I know. Markets are like that; simple story, complicated plumbing.

From Fed funds to front doors: how 25 bps hits mortgages and builder P&Ls

Here’s the plumbing, without the pixie dust. The Fed moves the overnight rate (Fed funds). That doesn’t set your 30‑year mortgage directly; it nudges expectations for inflation, growth, and balance sheet runoff, which then move the term curve, think the 2-10 year Treasury area. Mortgage rates key off Mortgage‑Backed Securities (MBS) yields, which sit on top of the 5-10 year part of the curve with a spread for prepayment/convexity risk. I’m saying “OAS” out of habit, that’s the option‑adjusted spread; basically, the extra yield investors demand to take on prepayment risk. If that sounds too wonky: it’s the cushion lenders need before they quote you a 30‑year fixed.

So the pass‑through from a 25 bps policy cut is indirect and messy. If a cut lowers term yields and tightens MBS spreads, you see mortgage sheets improve. If the 10‑year barely budges or spreads widen, the benefit fizzles. My rule of thumb (not gospel): a 25 bps Fed cut can translate to anywhere from 0-15 bps on mortgage quotes near‑term, with a beta that changes week to week based on risk appetite and supply (gross MBS issuance, bank demand, Fed runoff pace).

Context matters. In 2023, affordability got slammed. Freddie Mac’s survey put the average 30‑year fixed around 8% in October 2023, with the Oct 26 print at 7.79%, the highest since 2000. That crushed payments and pushed cancellations higher across the industry. Small policy cuts after that didn’t help much until term yields fell and MBS spreads stopped gapping wider. Translation: the curve and spreads did the heavy lifting, not just the FOMC statement.

Here’s how that chain looks in practice:

• Fed funds → 2s/10s: A 25 bps cut that credibly cools recession risk or disinflation fears can pull the 2‑year more than the 10‑year. You get some steepening. If the 10‑year drops 10-20 bps, we’re in business.
• 10‑year → MBS current coupon: When rate volatility eases, MBS OAS can tighten 5-15 bps. That’s often the swing factor. Lenders hedge better, lock desks get braver.
• MBS → 30‑year mortgage rate: Combine a 10-20 bps move in the 10‑year with 5-15 bps of spread tightening and you can see ~10-30 bps relief on the rate sheet. Not guaranteed; it’s a weather forecast.

What does 10-30 bps do on the ground? On a $400,000 loan, 25 bps is roughly $60-$70/month less in principal & interest. It’s not a miracle, but it can convert lookers into signers, especially if builders dial back incentives instead of chasing price.

And that’s where the P&L rubber meets the road. Builder gross margins hinge on incentive intensity (rate buydowns, closing credits, upgrades) and input costs (lots, lumber, labor). A full‑point 30‑year buydown can cost ~2-3% of loan amount upfront; even trimming the quoted rate by 20 bps from the market can save $3-5k per home in buydown spend. For a $500k ASP and a 22-25% gross margin baseline, that’s 50-100 bps of margin air back in the room, if management lets price stick. If not, if they redeploy into more incentives, you still get orders, just not the margin flow‑through. I’ve seen both choices in the same quarter, different zip codes.

Cycle times and backlog turns are the early tell. Shorter build cycles free up capital and reduce the urge to “buy the rate.” If a 25 bps cut calms buyers enough to keep the pipeline moving, builders will say so quickly. Earnings reports lag, but management commentary on orders, traffic, and cancellations usually shifts within weeks. Watch the weekly order pace, cancellation rates, and the % of deals using buydowns. Cancellations spiked when rates brushed 8% last year; they tend to stabilize as payment quotes firm and lock volatility cools.

My take: a single 25 bps cut helps only if it drags the 10‑year lower and narrows MBS spreads. The mortgage market is the boss here. If rate sheets improve even 10-20 bps, builders can ease incentives at the margin and protect backlog economics. If spreads stay wide, you get a headline pop, then a fade. Messy, but that’s the mechanism.

Receipts from past cycles: 1995, 2019, and the 2023-2024 whiplash

History doesn’t repeat, but in housing it sure rhymes when rates move. A single quarter‑point cut in 2025, by itself, probably won’t carry a full up‑cycle. Here’s the quick scorecard and what actually moved builder stocks when the tape mattered.

1995 soft‑landing episode. After the 1994 tightening, the Fed nudged rates lower in 1995 (25 bps in July and another 25 bps in December, with an additional 25 bps in January 1996 for a cumulative ~75 bps across the window). The key wasn’t just the policy rate, it was long rates easing. The 10‑year Treasury yield fell from roughly 7.8-8.0% in late 1994 to the mid‑6%s by mid‑1995. Mortgage rates followed: the Freddie Mac 30‑year average drifted from the ~9% area in late 1994 toward ~7%-7.5% by 1996. Affordability improved, and context mattered: job growth was steady, credit was clean, and builders weren’t drowning in spec. Homebuilder equities rallied as payments penciled. I remember covering a mid‑cap builder that cut incentives twice in Q3’95 simply because rate locks got less jumpy, orders followed within weeks.

2019 mid‑cycle adjustment. In 2019 the Fed cut 75 bps total (July, September, October). Long rates did the heavy lifting: the 10‑year dropped from ~2.69% in January to ~1.47% in September (2019 intrayear low), while the Freddie 30‑year mortgage rate averaged about 3.9% in 2019 after sitting near 4.9% in late 2018. Equity response was loud: the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) returned roughly +48% in 2019; SPDR Homebuilders (XHB) was up about +50% including dividends that year. That’s not because of 25 bps. It was the combo, multiple cuts, lower term yields, tighter mortgage spreads, and a reset in payment quotes that stuck around for months. Said differently: durable price.

2023-2024 whiplash. Different animal. Mortgage rates spiked into late 2023, Freddie’s survey hit ~7.8% in October 2023, the cycle peak, and stayed elevated for most of 2024, oscillating near 7% with bursts higher. Affordability cratered: NAR’s composite affordability index printed in the low‑90s in October 2023, one of the weakest monthly readings since the late 1980s. Any whiff of lower yields sparked tactical rallies in builder stocks, good for trades, hard for multi‑month positioning, because the underlying issue was term yields and wide MBS spreads, not the policy rate per se. I’ll admit I’m compressing a lot, but investors basically traded the 10‑year daily.

• Mechanism we keep seeing: 25 bps helps sentiment for a week; sustained rallies need either multiple cuts or a durable drop in the 10‑year plus narrower MBS OAS.
• Affordability is the fulcrum: rate sheets improving 10-25 bps can flip cancellations and pull‑through in real time, but you need stability for the sell‑side models (and buyers) to believe the payment.
• Equity beta to duration: when the 10‑year falls 50-100 bps and spreads behave, homebuilders can move 20-40% in a hurry, 2019 is your clean example.

Takeaway: across 1995, 2019, and the 2023-2024 swings, a single 25 bps cut didn’t carry the day. The big, sustained moves showed up when we had either multiple cuts or a durable decline in term yields and mortgage spreads. Same story now: if this year’s first 25 bps drags the 10‑year lower and tightens MBS, you can get more than a headline pop. If not, it’s a rally‑then‑fade. I wish it were simpler.

Who actually benefits: builders vs. REITs vs. the housing supply chain

I’m thinking out loud here because the market’s tape keeps changing week to week in Q4. A single 25 bps cut isn’t a bulldozer, it’s a nudge. That nudge lands very differently across housing equities.

• Public homebuilders (the high‑beta leg): order momentum reacts first. A 25 bps pass‑through to rate sheets is roughly a $16/month change per $100k of mortgage; on a $400k loan that’s about $64/month. Not life‑changing, but enough to flip a fence‑sitter and reduce cancellations at the margin, especially when sales teams pair it with incentives. Balance sheets are the real kicker: unlike pre‑2010, most large caps carry low use and ample liquidity, which lets them buy down rates without torching margins. Think about 2019 for a clean reference point: the 10‑year slid from ~3.2% (late 2018) to ~1.5% (Aug 2019) and the homebuilder ETF (ITB) rose roughly 49% in 2019. Different setup now, sure, but the transmission is similar, when term yields fall and MBS spreads behave, builders move first and fastest. If the 10‑year just chops in the mid‑4s this fall, you still get some benefit, just… thinner.
• Single‑family rental (SFR) REITs: two offsetting forces. If move‑up buyers remain stuck, rental demand stays firm and pricing power holds. At the same time, a decline in term yields tends to compress required returns, which can lift NAVs via lower cap rates, if spreads to Treasuries don’t widen. When spreads gap out (we saw versions of this last year), cap rates can be sticky even as the 10‑year falls, muting the valuation boost. Net: a 25 bps cut helps sentiment and debt costs, but the big win needs either tighter credit spreads or a clearer path for rent growth.
• Mortgage REITs (mREITs): it’s mostly about funding costs and the MBS basis. A quarter‑point cut trims repo costs and can add a modest, low double‑digit basis‑point tailwind to NIM before hedges. The catch is basis volatility, if current convexity and OAS wobble persists around the move, that can swamp the benefit. We’ve seen this movie: small cuts that coincide with wider MBS OAS don’t screen great for book value. If the Fed’s tone steadies vol and narrows basis, different story.
• Building products (lumber, HVAC, appliances): they need volume. A small cut only helps if it nudges starts and permits higher near‑term. Backlogs and budgets already in place drive Q4/Q1 shipments, so the impact is lagged. For context, U.S. single‑family permits were running roughly 1.0-1.1 million SAAR earlier this year; getting that sustainably above the low‑1.1s is what really moves units for installers and distributors. A one‑and‑done cut that doesn’t shift permits? Not much changes except tone on conference calls.

Bottom line: Builders benefit first via orders and their stronger post‑2010 balance sheets give them room to defend margins with buydowns. SFR REITs get a mixed bag, supportive demand if buyers stay frozen, potential valuation lift if spreads cooperate. mREITs see a mechanical NIM bump, unless basis volatility eats it. Building products need a real pickup in permits and starts; without that, a 25 bps cut is just noise in the channel.

What’s priced in as we sit in Q4 2025

Earlier this year, housing equities mostly moved on cuts being “next,” not on actual easing showing up in monthly data. That trade happened. The question now is whether 2025-2026 delivery schedules and gross margin bridges can validate the move. The build cycle math is pretty simple on paper and messy in practice: if community count rises mid‑single digits and orders hold flat‑to‑up low single digits, 2026 deliveries can grind higher even with sticky rates. But if incentives linger, the gross margin bridge flattens out. I’ve sat in too many builder meetings where the margin walk looks great until you layer in 100-150 bps of ongoing buydowns and a bit of option cost creep.

On the data we actually have: single‑family permits were running roughly 1.0-1.1 million SAAR earlier this year and printed 1.07 million SAAR in August 2025 (Census). Starts were softer at 0.99 million SAAR in August. The 10‑year Treasury has been chopping around the mid‑4s into October; call it ~4.6% give or take a bad CPI print. The 30‑year mortgage rate is still near 7% on the Freddie Mac PMMS, and the primary mortgage spread sits close to 300 bps over the 10‑year. None of that screams “easy multiple expansion from here.” A lone 25 bps cut that leaves the 10‑year stuck and MBS spreads fat? That mainly nudges sentiment, not valuation.

Valuation check

• Multiples expanded on soft‑landing hopes across Q2-Q3. Large‑cap builders are sitting around ~9-11x 2025 EPS on consensus and ~1.7-2.0x book for the better operators. That’s not nosebleed, but it assumes margin durability and steady ASPs.
• Without a visible downtrend in the 10‑year and tighter MBS spreads, a single 25 bps cut doesn’t by itself add more multiple. If anything, the hurdle shifts to delivery mix and SG&A use in 2026.

Guidance tea leaves

• Watch the language on incentives: if mortgage buydowns and lot premiums net to flat again, the cut mostly supports price, not expands margin. You’ll hear “disciplined incentives” on calls; translate that: we’re still paying to keep absorption steady.
• Community count growth is the other tell. If 2026 lots under control rise mid‑single digits, deliveries can climb even if rates don’t help. But if openings slip to low single digits, margin bridges need ASP mix to do the heavy lifting, and that’s harder with resale competition improving.

Positioning and flow

• Positioning matters a ton here. If funds are already overweight builders, most PMs I talk to are at least “market‑plus”, incremental buyers after a 25 bps cut may be thin. Rally risk skews to “pop then pause.”
• Options markets are telling a similar story: implieds picked up into events this fall, but skew suggests people are hedging a gap‑up that fizzles rather than a melt‑up.

Here’s where I’m being a bit nit‑picky, but it matters: a sustained re‑rating probably needs the 10‑year drifting toward the low‑4s and primary‑secondary spreads narrowing 25-50 bps. That would turn a 25 bps cut into real monthly payment relief and let builders taper incentives into 2H26. Without that, you’re banking on mix and scale to do the work. I get it, that was a lot, this is getting overly complex, but that’s the game we’re playing.

One personal note: I walked a new community outside Austin last month. Great traffic, decent spec inventory, and every sales agent led with the buydown matrix. The cut is nice marketing, but the deal still penciled because the builder was eating 125-150 bps on rate. That squares with what’s in the stocks right now.

Bottom line: A 25 bps cut that doesn’t pull the 10‑year down or tighten MBS spreads is mostly priced. Near‑term, expect guide‑driven stock selection, rewarding builders with clean 2026 delivery ramps and credible incentive tapering. Broad beta? More likely a pop on headlines, then a pause while we wait for either spreads to tighten or for orders to prove the margin bridges.

Scenario map for the next 3-6 months (and how I’d trade it)

We’re in Q4 with a market that wants clean narratives and keeps getting messy ones. Rates, spreads, and credit are the steering wheel here. I’m keeping this practical and portfolio‑ready.

• Quarter‑point cut with a “data‑dependent” tone (base case): Fade the first pop. In prior easing starts, the headline relief doesn’t always flow to mortgage quotes right away, after the first 25 bps cut in July 2019, the Freddie Mac 30‑yr average eased only ~15 bps into August (3.75% to ~3.60%; 2019 data). Trade: add selectively to quality builders with lot control, strong spec turns, and active buydown programs. Keep dry powder for a 3-5% post‑pop giveback. I prioritize operators already subsidizing 125-150 bps on rate buydowns (the stuff I saw outside Austin lines up) because that converts traffic even if MBS spreads don’t instantly play nice.
• Quarter‑point cut + guidance hinting at more easing later this year: Now you lean in. Add to builders and select building‑products tied to single‑family starts. Consider covered calls on liquid tickers/ETFs to harvest implied vol around print season, implieds typically lift into builder earnings and Fed weeks, and you can finance incremental adds if we chop. I still ladder entries; 40-60% of target now, rest on red days.
• No cut, but term yields drift lower on softer data (the counter‑intuitive winner): Mortgage quotes can fall anyway if the 10‑year grinds down. Remember, the 30‑yr mortgage rate tracks term yields and MBS spreads more than the policy rate. In 2023, when the fed funds rate was unchanged, the PMMS peak of 7.79% (Oct 2023) eased as the 10‑year slipped later that quarter. Trade: lean into builders on any “no‑cut” knee‑jerk selloff; avoid mREITs with basis risk if spreads stay jumpy.
• Cut but MBS spreads stay sticky: Watch‑and‑wait. Agency MBS spreads were abnormally wide in 2023 (current‑coupon vs Treasuries ran well over 100 bps at times, versus ~70 bps pre‑COVID in 2019), and if that stickiness persists, the benefit to mortgage rates is muted. Focus on operators with superior sales conversion and disciplined spec inventory turns. I want tangible evidence that incentives can taper into 2H26 without crushing absorptions.

Quick aside, because I’ve tripped on this before: markets overreact to the words “cut cycle.” But without spread tightening, the payment math doesn’t change enough. That’s why I like buying the dips, not chasing the first green candle. Same philosophy, different tape.

• Risk hedge: Pair builder longs with regional bank shorts if credit tightens into year‑end. Watch senior loan officer surveys and CRE headlines; if small‑bank credit standards tighten again, housing demand can wobble at the margin. Optionality: call spreads on the builder ETFs into earnings windows later this year, define risk, aim to capture a guidance beat or a better‑than‑feared orders cadence.

Positioning summary for 3-6 months

1. Base case (25 bps, data‑dependent): fade strength; own quality builders with buydowns; keep 20-30% cash for dips.
2. Cut + easing signals: add to builders/products; write covered calls to monetize elevated implied vol.
3. No cut, lower term yields: add on weakness; avoid mREIT basis risk; overweight spec‑efficient operators.
4. Cut + sticky spreads: hold core, wait for spread improvement; emphasize sales conversion and lot discipline.
5. Hedge: regional bank shorts as credit tightens; use call spreads on ETFs around prints to keep asymmetry.

Not a hero trade setup. It’s a patience setup. Let the policy path set the tape, let spreads confirm, then scale. If we actually get both lower term yields and a 25-50 bps compression in MBS spreads by year‑end, that’s when I’ll press beta, not before.

Bottom line: a nudge helps, the bond market decides

A single 0.25% cut can extend the housing trade for a bit, keep momentum alive, keep builders’ sales centers busy, but durability won’t come from the press conference headline. It comes from plumbing: lower term yields and tighter mortgage spreads. History still matters here. The Freddie Mac 30‑year fixed mortgage rate peaked at 7.79% in October 2023, when the 10‑year Treasury kissed ~4.99% (both October 2023). That gap, the mortgage/10‑year spread, blew out to roughly 300 bps in 2023, versus a long‑run norm closer to ~170 bps (1990-2019 average ballpark). Last year, Urban Institute data showed the spread still hanging around ~280 bps in 2024. Translation: a quarter‑point policy cut, by itself, rarely fixes the part that’s actually choking affordability.

My take, and it’s just that, one person’s playbook after too many housing cycles: a modest cut this year can keep orders from rolling over, especially with buydowns doing the heavy lifting, but the multi‑quarter upside for housing equities needs two things at once: the 10‑year drifting down and the primary/secondary spread grinding tighter. If we see the spread move from ~250-280 bps toward sub‑200 bps while the 10‑year trends lower, that’s when operating use shows up in earnest. If not, we’re back to tactical trades and careful position sizing.

I almost typed “term premium and convexity supply”, ignore me. In plain English: watch the 10‑year and the mortgage markup. Cheaper money + less markup = real fuel.

Keep it simple and mechanical with three dials you check weekly:

• 10‑year yield trend: lower highs and lower lows are your friend. A 25 bp policy cut won’t stick unless the back end agrees.
• Primary/secondary mortgage spread: look for sustained compression, direction matters more than a single print. Sub‑200 bps is where builders really feel it.
• Builder order commentary: watch monthly cancellation rates, community count growth, and buydown mix. If orders hold or accelerate as rates ease, that’s confirmation.

And yeah, be flexible. Scale in on weakness, respect valuation, and let the data lead you, not your hopes. I’ve chased more than a few “soft‑landing rallies” over 20 years. The ones that paid weren’t the loudest; they were the ones where rates quietly did the work for 6-10 weeks, spreads tightened 25-50 bps, and backlog conversion ticked up without heroic incentives.

Quick practical guardrails for Q4 2025: if the Fed trims 25 bps and the 10‑year refuses to budge, assume only marginal help to mortgage rates. If the 10‑year eases 20-40 bps and the mortgage spread tightens ~25 bps, you can lean in, selectively, toward spec‑efficient builders, products tethered to purchase volumes, and away from levered basis risk. Keep some dry powder; write calls when implied vol pops. And if I’m wrong and spreads widen again, you’ll be glad you scaled instead of sprinted.

You’ve got this, stack the odds in your favor by focusing on rates plumbing and cash‑flow math, and the next housing rally you ride won’t just be luck. It’ll look like luck to everyone else, but you’ll know it was the bond market calling the shots.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How do I tell if a 0.25% Fed cut will actually lower my mortgage rate?

A: Watch the current-coupon MBS yield and its OAS to the 10-year, not the fed funds headline. If MBS OAS tightens 10-15 bps after the cut and the 10-year holds steady or falls, you might see ~5-10 bps improvement on retail 30-year quotes. Track daily rate sheets and the MBS/UST spread; if spreads widen, the cut won’t help your quote much.

Q: What’s the difference between fed funds, MBS OAS, and the 30-year mortgage rate?

A: Fed funds is an overnight rate for banks, great for headlines, weak pass-through to mortgages. MBS OAS (option-adjusted spread) is the extra yield investors demand to hold mortgage bonds versus Treasuries after prepayment/convexity. Your 30-year mortgage rate prices off the MBS yield (Treasury + OAS), plus lender costs and profit. Translation: mortgages follow the 10-year and MBS spreads, not fed funds directly. That’s why 2019 spreads near ~160 bps meant cheaper loans than late 2023’s 300+ bps mess.

Q: Is it better to buy homebuilder stocks now or wait for more cuts?

A: Short answer: it depends on MBS spreads, the 10-year path, and how much easing is already in the stocks. Housing names rallied into Q4 2025 on the “easing later this year” script, so a single 25 bp cut isn’t new news. What moves earnings over 6-12 months is whether mortgage rates fall because MBS OAS tightens and the 10-year drifts lower, improving affordability and orders. Practical playbook:

• If you’re underweight and patient, scale in over weeks, not all at once. Use staggered limits and let volatility pay you.
• Prefer builders with strong spec inventory turns, lower land carry, and pricing power via incentives (rate buydowns) without nuking margins.
• If you’re up big from earlier this year, consider trimming into strength or selling covered calls on ETFs to harvest premium while keeping core exposure.
• Watch high-frequency data: weekly mortgage apps, builder incentives in sales commentary, cancellation rates, and order growth vs. community count. If MBS OAS tightens 20-30 bps and the 10-year is stable to lower, that’s your green light to add. If spreads widen post-cut, wait, chasing headlines usually pays for the first 30 minutes, not the quarter. And yeah, keep stops; housing can whipsaw when rates twitch.

Q: Should I worry about housing stocks giving back gains if MBS spreads don’t tighten after the cut?

A: A bit, yes. If MBS OAS stays wide or widens, mortgage rates won’t improve much and order momentum can stall, pressuring multiples that ran up earlier this year. My bias: keep position sizes sane, use trailing stops, and hedge with a little rate exposure (e.g., IEF/TLT or payer swaptions if you’re fancy). No spread relief, no sustainable rally, pretty simple plumbing.

@article{will-a-0-25-fed-cut-sustain-housing-stock-rallies,
    title   = {Will a 0.25% Fed Cut Sustain Housing Stock Rallies?},
    author  = {Beeri Sparks},
    year    = {2025},
    journal = {Bankpointe},
    url     = {https://bankpointe.com/articles/quarter-point-cut-housing-stocks/}
}