Will a Fed Pivot at 3% Inflation Fuel a Market Bubble?

The myth to kill: rate cuts don’t automatically cause bubbles

I hear this a lot right now: if the Fed pivots with inflation hovering near ~3%, we’re off to the races, cue the blow-off top. Nice story, but markets don’t run on press-conference vibes. They run on liquidity, earnings, and positioning (in that order most days ) and policy only matters to the extent it changes those three. Rate cuts trim the discount rate, sure, but if earnings are wobbling or credit is still tight, that “valuation pop” can get eaten alive by weaker cash flows and higher risk premia. And that’s the point people miss because the headline is cleaner than the plumbing.

Quick sanity check. In 2001, the Fed cut aggressively (the funds rate went from 6.50% at the start of the year to 1.75% by year-end ) and the S&P 500 still fell about 13% in 2001, because earnings collapsed and credit spreads widened. In 2007-2008, policy went from 5.25% to 2.00% before the crisis fully bloomed; the S&P dropped ~38% in 2008. On the flip side, 1995’s soft-landing cuts coincided with stronger earnings and easy credit, and stocks rallied. Same tool, different backdrop, wildly different outcomes.

And one more thing I’ll over-explain because it trips folks up: a rate cut is a price change; liquidity is a quantity. Prices influence quantities, but not one-for-one and not immediately. If the Treasury is issuing heavy, if the Fed is only passively shrinking the balance sheet, if banks are still cautious, then the dollar amount of risk-buying capacity doesn’t jump just because the fed funds rate ticks lower. That’s why the channels (reserves, money funds, bank balance sheets, dealer capacity ) matter more than the soundbite.

Data point: Money market fund assets remain elevated. ICI data showed total U.S. MMF assets around the $6T mark in late 2024, and they’re still high in 2025, which means there’s dry powder, but it moves only when yields, risk appetite, and narratives line up, not on a press release alone.

So what actually fuels a bubble? Narratives plus use. You need a story people can’t resist and the financing to lever it up. Policy can help set the backdrop, but it rarely creates speculative use by itself, lenders, shadow credit, and market structure do. We saw that in 2020-2021: zero rates mattered, but the real accelerant was margin access, option gamma, and stimulus cash sloshing into the same trades. Rate policy was a character, not the lead.

Circling back to 2025: positioning is still steering a lot of the tape. Large allocators have kept cash balances elevated after last year’s volatility, buybacks are pacing well but not absurd, and systematic players are reactive to realized vol. That means a cut at roughly 3% inflation might nudge multiples, but the follow-through depends on earnings revisions, credit spreads, and whether that cash actually rotates. If loan standards (SLOOS) are only easing at the margin and HY spreads aren’t tightening, the bubble call is… premature. I’ve been on the Street long enough to know: bubbles need fuel and a match, policy is just the oxygen in the room, not the spark.

So where are we now in 2025, really?

Short answer: the Fed is still signaling “restrictive for now, flexible later,” and the stuff that matters for risk assets isn’t just the first cut, it’s the cadence of cuts, the balance sheet’s runoff speed, and whether credit actually flows. I know that sounds like three knobs on the same machine, but they hit markets through different pipes.

On the policy rate: a 2025 pivot is about pace and guidance, not a single meeting. If inflation is hanging near ~3% year-over-year (and headline CPI has been hovering around that neighborhood this year after finishing 2024 at roughly 3.4% y/y in December ) the Fed can ease, but this isn’t a return-to-zero story. The reaction function has changed post-2021. Labor is still okay, productivity is messy, and the Fed would rather glide than lurch. One 25bp move doesn’t change the multiple; a credible path and consistent messaging can.

On the balance sheet: frankly, this is the liquidity swing arm to watch. The Fed already tapered QT once. In May 2024, they announced a reduction of the monthly Treasury runoff cap from $60B to $25B starting June 2024, and kept the MBS cap at $20B while redirecting principal into Treasuries, that’s in the minutes, not rumor. Since then, the Standing Repo Facility has been a quiet backstop, and the other big story is the ON RRP facility winding down: balances that peaked above $2 trillion in 2022 steadily drained and were near zero earlier this year, pushing money funds back into bills and bank reserves. Net: liquidity conditions can get easier even before policy rates move if QT is softened further or if reserves build. Or the reverse, if Treasury ramps issuance at the long end while the Fed keeps runoff steady. It cuts both ways.

Credit plumbing is still the better tell than dot plots. The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) showed broad tightening through 2023 (net tightening in C&I to large/mid firms was around 50% in Q4 2023 ) and only gradual easing across 2024-2025. That matches what I’m seeing anecdotally: underwriting is less stingy than last year, but banks aren’t throwing term sheets at anything with a pulse. High yield spreads aren’t at 2021 tights (~300 bps on ICE BofA OAS); they’ve been cycling wider than that in 2025, which says the market still prices some default and refinancing risk. If those spreads don’t compress and loan standards don’t loosen, rate cuts alone won’t goose risk.

To summarize without overcomplicating (which, honestly, I already did):

• Pivot = path + communication. A series with a clear endpoint moves valuations more than the “first cut” headline.
• QT vs. taper of QT is the liquidity lever. Watch runoff caps, reserve balances, and bill supply. These feed into dealers’ balance sheets and the funding curve that actually touches prices.
• Credit beats dots. Spreads, primary issuance, and SLOOS tell you if easing transmits. If they’re sticky, multiples hit a ceiling.
• 3%-ish inflation gives room to ease, not to floor rates. The zero lower bound is a different regime; we’re not in that movie.

Oversimplifying (and I’m aware I am): rates set the weather; liquidity sets the tide; credit opens the beach. You need all three for a party.

One more human note: I’ve been wrong before on timing. We all have. But if you’re a risk allocator right now, the checklist is pretty clean, watch the Fed’s guidance on the sequence of cuts, watch any hint of another QT taper, and watch whether credit spreads and lending standards confirm the easing. If those don’t line up, you’ll get tradable rallies, not a sustained melt-up. And yes, that cash on the sidelines can come in (but it needs a green light from credit first.

How a pivot transmits: from Fed speak to your portfolio

Mechanically, it starts at the front end. When the Fed signals easier policy ) and especially when it actually cuts, overnight rates and the 2-year Treasury usually move first. The 2-year is your rumor-and-fact barometer. If the policy path comes down 50-100 bps on the dots and in OIS, front-end yields follow. But (big but ) the long end doesn’t have to cooperate. Term premia and supply can fight you. The NY Fed’s ACM model showed the 10-year term premium flipping from negative in 2021-2022 to positive by late 2023 (roughly +50 to +100 bps at points in Q4 2023), and staying around zero-to-positive through 2024. That one fact alone made long rates sticky even when the market priced future cuts. Add Treasury issuance: in 2024, gross coupon supply stayed heavy across notes and bonds as deficits ran north of 6% of GDP. Supply and a positive term premium can blunt the rally in 10s/30s even if the Fed is easing the front.

Equities get their shot through real yields, if earnings hold. Two ifs. When real yields fall, the equity risk premium doesn’t have to do all the work and multiples can expand. Historically, in easing windows like 1995 and 2019, the S&P 500’s forward P/E added ~2-3 turns as 10-year TIPS yields fell ~80-120 bps. That’s the mechanical part. The conditional part is earnings: if margins deteriorate or top-line rolls, multiple expansion hits a ceiling. We saw that tug-of-war last year, 2024 had resilient mega-cap EPS and softening breadth. If real yields ease this year and earnings don’t crack, multiples get air. If either leg slips, it’s choppy, not linear.

Credit is the transmission belt. Easier policy narrows credit spreads when it loosens actual funding, not just expectations. In prior soft landings (again, 1995 and 2019 as decent templates), high yield OAS narrowed ~120-180 bps from the local wides into the mid-cycle. In 2024, HY OAS spent time in the low-to-mid 300s bps range, which is not distressed, but it’s also not free. The Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS) improved through late 2024 with fewer banks tightening C&I standards, and that improvement needs to continue this year for spreads to grind tighter. If spreads compress, high yield and private credit marks lift. If they don’t, equity beta has a ceiling. I know, broken record, but credit beats dots.

Liquidity lifts the longest duration risk first. When policy eases and QT even hints at a taper, the first beneficiaries are the longest cash-flow duration assets: mega-cap growth, unprofitable tech, and long-dated bonds. That’s not philosophy; it’s math on discount rates. You saw it in 2023’s AI trade when 10-year real yields fell from ~2.5% in October 2023 to closer to 1.5-1.8% by late-year, long-duration equities ripped while short-duration value lagged. If the Fed signals a friendlier balance sheet stance later this year, expect that same ordering again: duration first, cyclicals and small caps later if credit confirms.

Issuance and term premia can fight the pivot. This is the gray area. Treasury’s quarterly refunding matters, a lot. Higher coupons and longer average maturity issuance keep term premia firm. In 2024, IG corporate issuance was roughly $1.3-$1.4 trillion (SIFMA tallies for full-year), with HY around the low-$200 billions; robust supply met solid demand, but that supply still improving standards for long-end rallies. If Treasury sticks with heavier long-end issuance while deficits stay wide, the curve can bull-flatten only so much before premia push back. That’s the “rates set the weather” part meeting the “tide” and, well, the levee.

Real estate re-prices on a lag. Cap rates track real yields with a beta less than one and a 3-6 quarter lag. A clean rule of thumb from the last cycle: a 100 bp move in the 10-year typically shifts commercial cap rates ~50-75 bps over time, depending on sector. In 2023, the 30-year mortgage rate peaked near 7.8% (October 2023, Freddie Mac series), which hammered affordability. If front-end easing bleeds into lower mortgage rates later this year and banks relax lending standards, residential volumes pick up first, pricing later. CRE needs both lower discount rates and functioning credit (especially office, where NOI uncertainty is the bigger villain than the cap rate itself.

use and options can turbocharge ) but only if funding is loose. When policy is easing and dealers are long gamma, moves can grind. Flip it: when funding is cheap and investors press use, chase weekly calls, and CTAs add length, you can get face-ripping rallies. The 2020-2021 playbook had this in neon. But if funding markets are tight (think sticky SOFR, cautious prime-broker balance sheets, wide term GC ) that optionality doesn’t transmit. It fizzles. I’ve been burned assuming flow would carry price without funding. Doesn’t work. Not for long anyway.

Okay, I’m getting a little animated here because this is the part that actually hits your P&L. The sequence I watch in real time is simple: front-end rally? check; term premium behavior? check; credit spreads? double check; liquidity optics (QT pace, reserve balances)? check; and then use/flow indicators (ETF creations, single-name call skew, prime-broker balances). If those line up, the pivot doesn’t just show up on a press conference, it shows up in your portfolio.

Rates move first. Term premia decide if duration rallies. Credit decides if beta works. Liquidity decides who wins the tape that week. Funding decides how big it gets.

Is 3% inflation + a pivot the spark? A bubble checklist

I’m not allergic to heat, I just want to know if it’s a kitchen or a wildfire. Here’s the quick-and-dirty screen I’m using across the hot corners right now, with 3%ish inflation and a Fed that’s edging easier this fall. There’s nuance, and I’ll miss a thing or two, but this catches most of the smoke before it becomes flame.

• Narrative heat (AI): Revenue reality vs. promises. Look at 2025 capex and margins, not just TAM slides. If model spend slows or shifts from GPUs to inference efficiency, top-line could wobble. A simple tell: do 2025-2026 revenue guides scale with announced customer capex? If leaders are guiding mid-30s% growth while customers are only hiking AI capex high-teens, the math won’t reconcile for long. I keep a rough yardstick: sales multiples vs. 2-year CAGR. When forward sales is >20x and two-year CAGR dips under ~30%, your margin of safety evaporates, fast.
• use: Are funds borrowing more? If prime-broker balances and HF gross are rising, that’s your yellow flag. If cash is still king (high MMF balances, sticky reserve balances ) you get pops, not blowoffs. I still watch SOFR and term GC; if funding stays easy and brokers loosen, froth scales.
• Participation: Retail flows, IPO backlog, secondaries. Froth shows up when IPO calendars refill and secondaries clear at tighter discounts. 2021 was the extreme; we’re nowhere near that, but the pick-up in follow-ons this year versus last year is telling. If you see hot AI adjacencies printing back-to-back secondaries, that’s late-cycle behavior. I’d also keep an eye on ETF creations in the AI-basket funds week by week, if they surge while breadth narrows, that’s classic topping action.
• Pricing vs. fundamentals: Stack sales multiples against 2023-2025 realized growth, not aspirational 2030 stories. If enterprise AI vendors grew, say, 25-35% annually 2023-2025, I want multiples that imply reasonable reversion, not perfection. The spread between top-quartile and median names is wide again; dispersion like this can be healthy, but it also hides landmines.
• Housing: Mortgage rates off the peak helps volumes, but supply still bites. The 30-year fixed peaked around 7.79% in Oct 2023 (Freddie Mac), and we’re hovering in the high-6s as we head into Q4 2025. That unlocks some move-up buyers, yet active listings remain lean versus pre-2019 norms. Translation: price downside is cushioned, but a volume boom needs more inventory, rate cuts alone won’t fix locked-in 3% mortgages.
• Crypto: Liquidity-sensitive. Watch stablecoin float and funding, not tweets. Aggregate stablecoin market cap is roughly in the $160-170B range as of September 2025 (CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap), up meaningfully from last year; if that keeps climbing and perpetual funding stays positive and elevated, beta runs. If stablecoin supply stalls for a month or two, rallies tend to fade, like clockwork. I know I sound like a broken record on this.
• Private credit: If spreads tighten and base rates slip, yields compress and structure gets soft. Private credit AUM hit about $1.7T in 2024 (Preqin). Growth is fine, covenant quality is the red flag. Track EBITDA add-backs, incurrence vs. maintenance covenants, and documentation slippage; when lenders brag more about speed than diligence, it’s late innings.
• CRE (esp. office): Rate cuts don’t create tenants. U.S. office vacancy is around 20% nationally in mid-2025 (CBRE), sublease space still heavy. Refinancing relief helps cap rates, but net absorption and TI budgets tell the real story. If concessions are rising while availabilities stick, the equity isn’t “fixed” by 50-75 bps of cuts.

Checklist, not crystal ball: easy money + broad participation + use + weak covenants + pricing that ignores 2-year growth = bubble risk. Miss a couple ingredients and you just get a rally.

Bottom line, if inflation hangs near ~3% and the Fed keeps nudging easier, you absolutely can get pockets of speculative excess. Just keep this screen handy: real revenues vs. narratives, use, participation breadth, and whether pricing makes sense against 2023-2025 delivery. I’ve chased heat before; it works… until it doesn’t, and the escape door gets crowded.

What to do if the Fed eases while inflation hovers near 3%

What to do if the Fed eases while inflation hovers near ~3%

Gentle-ease isn’t 2020. It’s not firehose liquidity; it’s drip irrigation. That means fewer hero trades, more blocking-and-tackling. One quick reality check: as of late September 2025, 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation sits in the mid-2s% range, and front-end cash still pays north of 4% in a lot of ladders. That combo says: don’t panic out of cash, but start tuning the mix.

• Extend duration, but do it in steps: Average in, don’t lunge. If your bond sleeve is running ~3 years duration today, stair-step toward 4-5 years over the next 2-3 months. Use a ladder (6-36 months on the short end, add a 5-7 year rung) rather than a single big bet on the 10-year. I’ve chased the belly before… got the direction right, timing wrong.
• Barbell the risk: Keep short-duration cash/T-bills for optionality on one side and selective long-duration (IG, agency MBS, or 7-10 year Treasuries) on the other. If the curve steepens on easing, you’ll be glad you didn’t abandon the front end.
• Equities: favor quality growth, not pure stories: Free-cash-flow margin, reinvestment discipline, and pricing power win when CPI hangs ~3%. Screening for positive FCF yield and net cash balance sheets beats “total addressable market” pitches. Reminder to self, and to you: revenue quality over narrative heat.
• Own some inflation protection if ~3% sticks: TIPS at breakevens in the mid‑2s% give you convexity if inflation re-accelerates. Blend with real assets: pipelines/midstream, regulated utilities with inflation pass-throughs, and selective commodity producers. Not a huge slug… 5-15% of the total portfolio, sized to your risk.
• Credit: stay up-in-quality or go shorter in HY: IG OAS near ~110 bps (ballpark in September 2025) isn’t rich, isn’t cheap. For high yield, prefer BBs and short-duration funds. Avoid covenant-lite creep, I know, it sounds boring, but weak covenants are how you think you own 6-7% and end up owning equity. Quick reminder from earlier: CRE office vacancy is ~20% nationally in mid-2025 (CBRE). Credit selection matters, a lot.
• Hedges while vols are reasonable: With equity vol in the mid-teens, put spreads or collars can be funded by trimming some upside. Example: sell a 3-6 month call 10% OTM, buy a 5-10% OTM put, finance part of it with a further OTM put sale. If vols back up, roll down protection rather than chasing after a drawdown.
• Taxes: be intentional before Q4 deadlines: Tax-loss harvest around losers from earlier this year; pair with trimming appreciated winners to manage brackets. 2025 long-term capital gains brackets remain 0%/15%/20%, with the 3.8% NIIT above $200k single/$250k MFJ (law since 2013). Wash-sale rules still bite, use ETFs or close substitutes to maintain exposure for 31 days.

One thing I should clarify from the top: I’m not anti-duration here; I’m anti all-at-once. A 3-5 rung ladder and a quality-growth tilt let you participate if the Fed eases again later this year, without getting torched if inflation prints come in hot for a month or two. If we’re wrong and inflation drifts back toward 2.5%, that barbell, cash plus some 7-10s, still works. And if we’re right and ~3% sticks… the TIPS and pricing power do the heavy lifting.

Before yelling ‘bubble’, here’s what I’m watching next

Before yelling “bubble,” here’s the dashboard I’m watching next:

• Fed path: cuts vs. QT taper, liquidity beats rhetoric. I care less about press conference tone and more about net dollar liquidity. The balance sheet runoff pace matters: since June 2024 the Treasury cap has been $25B/month (down from $60B) while the MBS cap stayed $35B, with actual MBS runoff often below the cap. If we get one more taper later this year, say Treasury runoff moving toward ~$15B/month, or Treasury shifts issuance toward bills, that’s a stealth easing even if we only get 25-50 bps of rate cuts by December. Watch the weekly H.4.1 (Fed balance sheet) and bill supply; liquidity trumps soundbites.
• Real yields and earnings revisions. Multiple expansion needs both: lower real rates and rising forward EPS. The 10-year TIPS yield has been bouncing around ~1.8%-2.0% in September 2025 (it printed near 2.20% earlier this year). If real yields break back toward ~1.5% while 2025-2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates keep grinding higher, Street is roughly ~$255-$260 for 2025, up mid-single digits YTD, that’s the cocktail that stretches P/Es. If real yields stick near 2% and revisions stall, rallies tend to stall too. Simple, not easy.
• Credit conditions. The July 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showed fewer banks tightening C&I standards versus late 2024 and softer loan demand still. Call it healing, not hot. High-yield spreads (ICE BofA US HY OAS) are hovering around ~370-400 bps as we head into Q4; sub-350 bps with easy SLOOS would be my “froth” tell. Above 450 bps and tightening standards? That’s not bubble tape, that’s mid-cycle noise.
• Participation: retail, margin, IPOs. Retail flows into US equity ETFs have been solid this year, EPFR has 2025 YTD inflows well north of $200B, with August soft and September picking up again. FINRA margin debt sat around the low-$900 billions in mid-2025, not far from 2021’s peak; a decisive push to new highs into November would be a yellow flag. IPOs? Pricing has improved versus last year: more deals are clearing the range with modest first-day pops (call it low-teens median year-to-date), which is healthy. If we start seeing down-round unicorns clearing with 40%+ day-one pops and quick follow-ons, then, yeah, the animal spirits test is positive.

How I’ll handicap it: if all four flash green at once, QT taper adds liquidity, real yields fall, earnings revisions stay positive, credit spreads compress with easier SLOOS, and retail + IPO heat ramps, then froth risk rises fast. If two are green and two are meh, it’s probably just a normal easing cycle. And if real yields stay sticky while spreads widen, your “bubble” argument is mostly vibes.

Next reads on my screen (and I know I didn’t mention this earlier):

• Soft-landing odds. Watch core PCE monthly prints into Q4 (August ran 0.2% m/m, annualizing ~2.4% if it holds) plus job openings and quits. If inflation cools without labor cracking, the pivot narrative has legs.
• Refinancing waves. 2026-2027 HY and loan maturities are chunky; if spreads stay ~350-400 bps and refis term out without punitive covenants, equities won’t care. Stress shows up first in CCC refi windows and flex in loan new-issue pricing.
• Year-end tax moves. Q4 tax-loss harvesting and mutual fund capital-gain distributions can pressure single-names. December buybacks can offset. Track 8-K buyback authorizations and blackout calendars, liquidity pockets matter.
• Where private credit goes when rates drift lower. If base rates slip 50-75 bps into year-end, watch whether direct lenders tighten spreads to hang onto volume. A pivot from SOFR+600 to +500 on upper-mid deals would pull borrowers from HY and compress public spreads mechanically.

Bottom line from a grumpy guy who’s seen a few cycles: I won’t shout “bubble” unless liquidity, real rates, earnings, credit, and participation all say the same thing. If they don’t rhyme, it’s just a regular easing with the usual head-fakes. And yeah, I’ll change my mind if the data change, been wrong faster than this before.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How do I tweak my portfolio if the Fed cuts while inflation’s ~3%?

A: Keep your core mix. Tilt, don’t flip. Add a notch of quality cyclicals, trim long-duration winners if they’re stretched, and keep some dry powder. Favor balance sheets with net cash and pricing power. If credit spreads widen, upgrade bond quality; if they tighten, add a bit of credit beta.

Q: What’s the difference between a rate cut and liquidity, and which one really moves stocks?

A: A rate cut is a price (the cost of money). Liquidity is a quantity (how much money is available to buy risk). Prices can nudge quantities, but not instantly and not 1:1. This year, what matters is whether reserves rise, Treasury issuance slows, banks ease lending standards, and dealers have balance sheet to warehouse risk. If the Fed trims rates but QT continues, Treasury keeps issuing heavy, and banks stay cautious, the “valuation pop” can get offset by tighter credit and softer earnings. Historically, cuts in 2001 and 2007-2008 didn’t save stocks because earnings fell and spreads blew out. In 1995, cuts coincided with firm earnings and easy credit, and stocks rallied. So, watch liquidity channels and earnings first; rate headlines second.

Q: Is it better to stay in money market funds or rotate into stocks if the Fed pivots?

A: Depends on your time horizon and the backdrop. Money market funds are still huge, ICI showed roughly $6T in late 2024 and balances remain high in 2025, because yields have been attractive and the cash feels safe. If cuts progress later this year, MMF yields will drift down, which weakens the carry. Rotating makes sense when: earnings revisions turn positive, credit spreads are narrowing, and breadth improves. If spreads are widening and guidance is soft, keeping cash a bit longer is fine. Tactically: dollar-cost average from MMFs into quality equities over 3-6 months; pair that with short-duration Treasuries so you’re not all-or-nothing. Reassess after each payroll/CPI and the Senior Loan Officer Survey. And yea, don’t chase a 1-day “pivot” spike, positioning unwinds can fade fast.

Q: Should I worry about a bubble if the Fed cuts with inflation near 3%?

A: Worry about the setup, not the slogan. Rate cuts don’t automatically mean bubble. Look at three things: 1) Earnings: Are forward estimates rising and beats broadening? In 2001, cuts couldn’t offset collapsing profits. In 1995, healthier earnings helped equities run. 2) Credit: Are high-yield spreads tightening and new issuance clearing? In 2007-2008, spreads widened into cuts and equities sank. If this year we see tighter spreads and strong issuance, risk can work without a bubble. 3) Liquidity plumbing: Are bank reserves rising, the Fed slowing QT, and Treasury bill supply not crowding out risk? MMF balances are still high in 2025, which is potential fuel, but it only moves if plumbing channels it into risk. Practical checklist: add equity beta when spreads compress, earnings revisions flip positive, and breadth improves; fade if spreads widen and guidance weakens. Examples: prefer quality cyclicals and semis tied to real capex; keep some cash/short Treasuries as optionality; use stops on frothy pockets (unprofitable growth). Bubbles are about excess use + easy liquidity + euphoric positioning, not just a lower policy rate.

@article{will-a-fed-pivot-at-3-inflation-fuel-a-market-bubble,
    title   = {Will a Fed Pivot at 3% Inflation Fuel a Market Bubble?},
    author  = {Beeri Sparks},
    year    = {2025},
    journal = {Bankpointe},
    url     = {https://bankpointe.com/articles/3-inflation-fed-pivot-bubble/}
}