Do Rising Jobless Claims Signal Imminent Rate Cuts?

What the pros watch when headlines get loud

Every Thursday morning, my phone lights up with the initial claims print and at least three texts asking, “Rate cuts now?” Cute. Pros don’t trade a single number; they map the trend, the revisions, and how it slots into the Fed’s reaction function. Especially in Q4 2025, when the market is hypersensitive to any hint of a pivot, one noisy week can move two-year yields 8-12 bps and then snap right back. I’ve seen this movie. Twice.

Here’s the frame. Initial claims are the first-time filings, they’re fast, volatile, and often revised. Continuing claims capture how many people remain on benefits, usually reported with a one-week lag and a lot stickier. Initials flag stress early; continuings tell you whether that stress is persisting. In 2024, initial claims averaged roughly the low-220,000s per week while continuing claims hovered near ~1.8-1.9 million (Department of Labor data, 2024). Earlier this year, we saw the 4‑week average of initial claims drift into the mid‑220,000s to low‑230,000s range with continuing claims around the high‑1.8 millions (not scary, but a touch softer than late 2023. Point is: levels matter, but the slope and duration matter more.

Why that matters for rate-cut odds: the Fed cuts when the balance of risks shifts ) not because a headline spiked. Professionals watch:

• Trend vs. print: A sustained 4-8 week rise in the 4‑week average, say +20-40k, has historically preceded higher unemployment by 1-3 months (a common rule-of-thumb across cycle studies from 1990-2023). One week up? Could be seasonal noise.
• Initials vs. continuings: Rising initials with flat continuings looks like churn. Rising initials and rising continuings looks like cooling demand, which leans dovish, if inflation cooperates.
• Revisions: The Thursday number is a draft. Revisions can be 5-15k around holidays; Q4 seasonal factors can exaggerate swings by late November and December.

“Claims sit in the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate. They matter. But they matter through unemployment and wage growth, and only in context of inflation.”

That’s the crux. The Fed’s dual mandate is price stability and maximum employment. Claims feed the employment side, but policy shifts require corroboration: the unemployment rate trend (and the Sahm rule signal, a 0.5 pp rise from the 12‑month low, introduced in 2019), wage growth momentum, and inflation progress. If claims are climbing while core inflation is still sticky, the bar for cuts is higher. If claims are climbing and core disinflation is intact, odds move fast (and the front end will sniff it out before the press conference.

My philosophy here is simple: intellectual humility. I learned the hard way in 2008 and again in 2020 that single prints can mislead ) and they can mislead loudly. So we track the sequence, not the soundbite; the pace, not the pop. That’s how PMs navigate a jumpy Q4 tape without getting whipsawed.

Claims 101: Initial vs. continuing (and why volatility lies to you)

Quick plumbing check before anyone shouts “rate cuts now.” Initial jobless claims are the flow, brand‑new filings from people laid off last week. Continuing claims are the stock, people still collecting after the first week, which tells you about the persistence of labor market weakness. If initial claims are the fresh bruise, continuing claims are whether it keeps swelling.

Here’s the thing I keep reminding myself (and the desk) in Q4: week‑to‑week claims are noisy. Holidays, strikes, weather, and even filing office closures can swing the headline by 10-30k for no macro reason. We watched that earlier this year when a pair of early‑summer prints near the high‑220s spooked people, only to get revised down a week later and fade in the 4‑week average. I’ve worn that scar since 2008, single prints whisper sweet nothings; sequences tell the truth.

• Initial claims = flow. When they push persistently above their recent band, momentum is shifting. For most of 2025 so far, initial claims have chopped roughly in a 210k-235k range, with the 4‑week moving average hovering near the low‑220s. That range is tighter than what we saw at times last year.
• Continuing claims = persistence. If people struggle to find jobs, this climbs. In 2025, continuing claims have generally sat around 1.75-1.9 million, a notch higher than the 2023 lows but not screaming stress. The inflection matters more than the level.
• Watch the 4‑week moving average and revisions. The Labor Department revises prior weeks routinely; the average absolute revision is often around 5k. The 4‑week smooths out the “holiday and hurricane” effect.

Seasonals are their own character. Around holidays like Memorial Day, July 4th, and Thanksgiving, the seasonal factors shift (sometimes by around 7% ) because normal layoff patterns change (factories shut, schools swing schedules, etc.). Throw in a strike in one big state or a late‑summer storm pushing filings online/offline, and a perfectly fine economy can look wobbly for a week or two. I’m 90% sure we had that dynamic again around Labor Day, the state‑level breakdown looked lumpy while the national 4‑week stayed calm.

Hot take prevention kit: if initial claims pop one week but the 4‑week average is flat and continuing claims don’t budge, the labor signal probably didn’t change.

Two market angles I keep front of mind right now: (1) the front end trades the trend, not the print; Eurodollars, SOFR futures, they reprice harder when you see a few consecutive weeks creeping higher plus a climb in continuing claims. (2) Equities overreact to the headline, especially in thin Q4 tape; financials and small caps can move on a +20k surprise, then reverse when revisions hit. We saw a mini‑version of that earlier this year after a Thursday spike that was almost entirely calendar distortion.

Bottom line for rate‑cut chatter this year: claims matter through unemployment and wages. Initial = flow, continuing = stickiness. Respect the 4‑week average, check the revisions, and sanity‑check state detail for holidays, strikes, and weather before you let a noisy Thursday rewrite your macro view.

From claims to cuts: the Fed’s actual checklist in 2025

Claims are the opener, not the closer. In 2025 the Fed is still balancing sticky services inflation with a labor market that’s cooling in slow motion. Weekly claims help sketch the turn, but Powell & Co. won’t cut because one Thursday looked soft. They need overlapping evidence that slack is broadening: payrolls that step down on a 3‑month trend, an unemployment rate edging up in a persistent way, and wage growth that’s easing toward something compatible with 2% inflation. If those don’t line up, claims alone won’t move the policy needle.

Here’s the practical checklist I use, and it mirrors how the Fed talks about it in pressers and minutes:

• Claims lead: Initial claims point to turning points, but the 4‑week average and continuing claims confirm scope. Historically, the correlation between the 4‑week average of initial claims and next‑quarter payroll growth rises when continuing claims climb for several months in a row. Translation: more people staying on benefits usually precedes slower hiring.
• Payrolls confirm: A credible easing trend looks like the 3‑month average of nonfarm payrolls stepping down meaningfully from the prior year. For context, in 2019 when the Fed cut, payrolls had slowed from an average ~223k/month in 2018 to ~176k/month in the first half of 2019 (BLS). That deceleration was part of the “insurance cut” story.
• Unemployment rate matters in levels and changes: The Fed watches the change as much as the level. The Sahm Rule flags recession risk when the 3‑month average jobless rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12‑month low. You don’t need the full 0.5 ppt to get cuts, but a steady drift higher is a big deal for policy.
• Wages must cool: Average hourly earnings ran 5%+ y/y in 2022 and eased to roughly the low‑4s by late 2024 (BLS). The Fed has signaled that wage growth in the mid‑3s y/y is more consistent with 2% inflation once productivity is factored in.
• Inflation trend and expectations: Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, slowed from 4.9% y/y in early 2022 to about 2.9% y/y in December 2024 (BEA). Cuts in 2025 are only credible if core PCE is moving toward 2% on a 3‑ and 6‑month annualized basis and inflation expectations (surveys and market breakevens) stay anchored. If expectations pop, they wait.

Policy stance right now is the definition of data‑dependent, and the bar for a sudden pivot is high. Powell keeps repeating the same idea since 2023: the Committee needs “greater confidence” that inflation is moving sustainably to 2%. Services disinflation is the sticky part this year. I almost wrote “supercore PCE” (sorry, jargon ) think services prices excluding housing and energy. If that measure isn’t easing, the Fed isn’t cutting aggressively, even if claims tick up for a couple weeks.

A quick historical anchor helps frame 2025 thinking: in July-October 2019, the Fed delivered three cuts while unemployment hovered around 3.5%-3.7% and core PCE was ~1.6% y/y (BLS/BEA). The mix was slower global growth and subdued inflation. Different cycle, same principle, cuts were justified because inflation was soft and growth risks were building. Contrast that with 2022: claims rose at times, but with core PCE >4% the Fed hiked. Claims by themselves didn’t come close to forcing a pivot.

My personal tell, and yes, this is a little old‑school, is when claims are rising, and the unemployment rate has climbed for several months, and the 3‑month average of payrolls is down by 75-100k from the prior quarter, and 3‑month annualized core PCE is tracking near 2-2.4%. When those line up, market pricing of cuts tends to stick. I watched desks try to run with a single claims spike earlier this year; by Friday, revisions and a soft seasonal quirk took half the narrative back.

Bottom line for 2025: claims are a leading input, but payrolls, unemployment, and wages write the confirmation note. Inflation and expectations have to cooperate or the story doesn’t hang together. The Fed will not cut on claims alone, they need broad labor slack and inflation trending toward target, period. If you’re trading it, price the trend, not the print, and remember the pivot bar is high unless multiple boxes check at once.

Market translation: how stocks, bonds, and credit usually react

Even a hint of softer labor tends to pull the front-end of the Treasury curve down first. Traders don’t wait for the Fed dot plot; they run the odds of earlier cuts and press duration. That pattern is old hat. When cut odds rise, yields fall (especially 2s and 3s ) and the curve can start to re-steepen as the front-end collapses faster than the long end. Context matters a ton, but the sequence is surprisingly familiar.

Bonds. Rising cut odds = lower yields. The front-end usually leads the move, sometimes dramatically. A simple historical tell:

• In 2019, as the market priced and the Fed delivered three cuts, the 2-year Treasury yield fell from about 2.9% (Nov 2018) to roughly 1.5% by Aug 2019, about 140 bps before the recession that never arrived (source: Treasury data, 2018-2019).
• Yield curve re-steepening typically follows cut pricing. After past peaks in inversion, 2s10s has steepened 100-200 bps within 6-12 months around the first cut in cycles like 2001, 2007-2009, and 2019. The mechanism is simple: front-end collapses toward the new policy path while term premia out the curve is stickier.

Do not overthink it: duration helps first. If claims are rising and inflation is trending lower, the carry + rolldown math on the front-end can be your friend. I know, I’ve worn out a few Bloomberg keyboards riding that trade, then accidentally overstaying it…

Equities. Lower rates can lift multiples, but earnings risk lurks. When discount rates fall and growth hasn’t cracked, P/Es expand. A clear example: in 2019 the S&P 500 returned about 31% on the year while forward P/E climbed from ~15x in January to ~18x by December as the 10-year yield dropped from ~2.7% to ~1.9% (S&P Dow Jones Indices; U.S. Treasury, 2019). That said, when claims keep rising and the unemployment rate grinds up, earnings usually get hit later:

• During 2001-2002, S&P 500 operating EPS fell roughly 20% peak-to-trough (S&P data).
• In 2008-2009, EPS drawdown was closer to 40% before recovering (S&P data).

So stocks can pop on the “rates down” impulse, then stall as estimates get cut. That’s the whipsaw. Multiples up, then the E in P/E slips. In Q4, btw, liquidity can get patchy around holidays, reactions get exaggerated, both ways.

Credit. Spreads usually widen when claims rise persistently, especially in high yield. It’s not subtle:

• 2015-2016 mini-cycle: HY OAS roughly doubled to ~800 bps at the early-2016 peak from ~400 bps mid-2014 (ICE BofA US HY Index).
• March 2020 shock: HY OAS jumped from ~360 bps in Jan to ~1,000+ bps in late March 2020 before retracing with policy support (ICE BofA).

Investment grade can be slower to move, but funding windows tighten, covenants get tested, and primary issuance windows can swing shut for lower-quality borrowers right when they need them. If claims are noisy for a week, spreads yawn. If claims trend higher for months, spreads notice.

Okay, here’s where I get excited, curve steepeners. When the market leans into cuts, 2s10s or 5s30s steepeners can offer cleaner carry than outright longs if long-end supply, term premia, or deficits cap how far 10s/30s rally. I’ve seen that save a P&L more than once when a growth scare hit and the back end refused to play nice.

Duration helps first. Risk assets decide later. That’s not poetry; it’s just how the plumbing works when labor softens and the policy path shifts.

One caveat (this is getting a bit complex, sorry ) the mix of inflation and growth matters. If claims rise but core inflation is sticky, the front-end rally can be shallower and the curve re-steepen less. If inflation is rolling over (say 3-month annualized core PCE tracking ~2-2.4%, like we discussed), cut pricing sticks better and the bond move usually has legs. Stocks then trade the earnings path, not the rate path. Credit, well, it always sniffs recession risk earlier than equities want to admit.

Bottom line: softening labor tilts you long duration, neutral-to-cautious equities, and selective in credit, especially wary on lower-quality HY if claims keep climbing. Thats the playbook I keep taped to my monitor, coffee stains and all.

Scenario map: not all "rising claims" are created equal

Scenario map: not all “rising claims” are created equal

Claims are ticking up, yes, but the why matters as much as the what. We’ve got three practical paths for late 2025, and they point to different portfolios. One quick anchor: the Sahm Rule trigger is a 0.5 percentage point rise in the three-month average unemployment rate versus its 12‑month low (a Fed research rule of thumb). We’re not saying it trips tomorrow; we’re saying that’s the line where “noise” turns into “this is real.” And remember, earlier this year 3‑month annualized core PCE was running roughly 2.0-2.4%, which keeps the door open to cuts if growth softens without an inflation relapse.

• 1) Gentle rise, soft‑landing odds stay intact; measured cuts later this year or early next. Think 1995 or 2019 playbook. In 1995, the Fed delivered a mid‑cycle 75 bps easing while growth held up; 2019 was also 75 bps without an outright recession that year. If claims drift higher but stay well short of recessionary dynamics, the Fed leans toward a gradual easing bias rather than panic. What to do:
  • Rates: Start adding duration methodically. I know, I sound like a duration maxi, but when cuts move from “if” to “when,” long end usually prices it first.
  • Curve: Expect a controlled re‑steepening. I almost wrote “term premium restoration” (sorry ) I mean long yields fall a bit faster than front end if inflation is steady-to-cooling.
  • Credit: Stay up‑quality (IG over lower‑quality HY). Clip carry without stretching. Default cycles don’t start here, but dispersion creeps in.
• 2) Sharp, persistent climb, recession risk jumps; faster cuts, uglier earnings. Every NBER recession since the 1970s came with a sustained rise in claims and a breach of that 0.5 pp Sahm Rule threshold. In the 2015-16 earnings slump (not even a full recession), U.S. HY OAS peaked near ~800 bps in Feb 2016. If we head that direction now, the Fed likely cuts quicker, but credit and equities won’t thank you for it immediately. What to do:
  • Rates: Extend duration more aggressively; belly and long end benefit as the market prices a deeper cutting cycle.
  • Equities: Go risk‑off. Favor defensives and quality cash flow over cyclicals. Earnings revisions usually lag the macro and then catch up in a hurry.
  • Credit: De‑risk HY beta. Keep IG, especially higher‑quality financials and utilities, on a tighter leash but not abandoned.
• 3) Head‑fake spike, seasonal quirks fade; the Fed stays patient; markets retrace knee‑jerks. Q4 can be messy: holiday hiring, temp layoffs, and year‑end adjustments move the weekly prints around. BLS seasonal adjustment revisions around year‑end commonly swing weekly initial claims by 5-15k, not a macro regime change by itself. If that’s what this is, bonds can overshoot, then mean‑revert. What to do:
  • Rates: Fade extremes in the bond rally rather than chase everything. Keep some powder dry.
  • Cash/T‑bills: Park capital in T‑bills or short duration while waiting for cleaner signals. You get paid to wait right now.
  • Risk assets: Don’t overreact to one or two ugly Thursdays. Watch the 4‑week moving average, not the single print.

Where are we leaning? I’m treating a gentle rise as the base case unless the unemployment rate’s three‑month average pops by that 0.5 pp marker. I’ll stop with the basis points, call it roughly three‑quarters of a percent, that’s the tripwire. And yes, it’s Q4: holiday payroll churn can make claims look scarier than they are for a couple of weeks. So, duration helps first. Then we let earnings tell us which branch we’re actually on.

Your portfolio moves if claims keep climbing

If claims grind higher while payrolls cool, treat it like a slow‑moving weather front, not a tornado. What does that mean in practice? Extend duration, but do it incrementally. Favor quality in equities. Upgrade credit. And keep plenty of liquidity in short T‑bills so you can act, not react.

• Extend duration, stepwise: Add 5-10 year Treasuries in clips, not all at once. Think in tranches, e.g., 25% of your intended add on each confirmed uptick in the 4‑week claims average. Avoid betting the farm on a single Thursday print. For reference, Department of Labor data showed weekly initial claims averaging roughly 225-230k in 2023, with several weeks in 2024 running in the mid‑240k area and continuing claims hovering around 1.8-1.9 million late last year (DOL weekly reports, 2023-2024). My trigger? If the 4‑week average sustains >250k and continuing claims stick near or above ~1.9m, I lean more into duration.
• Barbell equities toward quality cash generators: Rebalance out of the most cyclical, operating‑use‑heavy names and toward net‑cash balance sheets, high free‑cash‑flow conversion, and pricing power. Keep a growth barb (profitable, self‑funding) and a defense barb (dividend growers with room to raise). Yes, that’s me saying trim a bit of the high‑beta rally winners and add to boring cash machines, the ones that buy back stock when spreads widen.
• Upgrade credit quality: Slide from lower‑tier high yield toward BBB/A IG, and keep your optionality in short T‑bills. Why? If spreads gap wider on a run of weak claims, you’ll want dry powder to add at better levels. I keep 6-12 months of spending needs (for individuals) or policy dry powder (for mandates) in 1-6 month bills. Simple, but it works.

A quick word on savers and retirees, because rate paths change the sequence‑of‑returns math fast. For savers, a ladder of T‑bills and CDs across 3, 6, 9, 12 months lets you roll into better yields if cuts don’t arrive, and still protects you if they do. For retirees, consider trimming withdrawal rates by 50-100 bps if volatility picks up and extend your “cash bucket” to 12-24 months of expenses. Liability‑match the next 2-4 years with Treasuries or FDIC‑insured CDs; let equities and longer bonds fight the longer war.

My rule of thumb: add duration first, cut cyclical equity beta second, upgrade credit third, and only accelerate after the unemployment rate’s 3‑month average is up ~0.5 pp from its 12‑month low (the Sahm‑rule marker).

Too wonky? Maybe. But the spirit is simple: you’re buying time and quality. And yes, it’s Q4, holiday hires and seasonal adjustments can make claims look jumpy for a week or two. That’s why I scale, not swing.

Tactically, I like: 1) extend bond duration by ~1-2 years versus your current average; 2) rebalance equity sleeves so at least half sits in firms with net cash, ROIC above WACC, and positive free cash flow today, not “2027 promises”; 3) reduce CCC exposure and keep a slug, say 5-10% of the total portfolio, in 1-3 month T‑bills for opportunistic buys.

Housekeeping matters now: keep tax lots tidy. Use specific lot ID, harvest losses where it doesn’t break your asset mix, and avoid wash sales. Why harp on this? Because if volatility spikes, and with claims firming, that’s not a wild scenario, you’ll want the flexibility to raise cash or rotate without handing extra dollars to the tax man. I’ve learned that the hard way once or twice… okay, three times.

Bringing it home: rate cuts aren’t "imminent", they’re earned by the data

Bringing it home: rate cuts aren’t “imminent”, they’re earned by the data

Rising claims can nudge the conversation, they don’t close the deal. One noisy Thursday doesn’t move the Fed; the full dashboard does. Historically, the dial shifts when multiple lights flash together: payroll growth cools toward replacement, unemployment drifts higher for months (not days), wage momentum eases, and inflation progress sticks. The clean way to think about it: claims inform, they don’t decide.

Two quick anchors so this isn’t hand‑wavy. First, the “Sahm rule” says you’re dealing with a real labor downturn when the three‑month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its low over the prior year. That’s a clear, published threshold, not tea‑leaf reading. Second, weekly jobless claims are jumpy by design: holiday shifts and auto retooling can push claims ±20-30k week‑to‑week. That’s why I watch the four‑week moving average and pair it with the monthly stuff, nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, the Employment Cost Index, and core PCE. Rate cuts tend to come after you see a few months where: payrolls trend toward ~100-150k, the unemployment rate is clearly above its prior trough by a few tenths, ECI pay growth is stepping down, and core PCE’s 3‑month annualized pace is behaving near the 2-2.5% zip code. Not perfection, just persistent cooling.

Why this matters for your money right now, Q4, with seasonal noise kicking around, comes down to positioning for ranges, not hero calls. You don’t need to nail the exact meeting when the Fed trims. You need a portfolio that benefits when the market transitions from “maybe another hike?” to “on hold, then gradual cuts when the data earn it.” That shift usually compresses volatility and steadies income.

• Claims inform, they don’t decide: Cross‑check them with payrolls, unemployment, wages, and inflation. If you like rules of thumb, map claims trends to the unemployment rate and keep an eye on the Sahm gap (0.5 pp trigger). If that gap isn’t opening and core PCE isn’t easing, cuts stay an expectation, not a calendar event.
• Position for ranges: Duration + quality + liquidity. Extend duration modestly (I said ~1-2 years earlier) so a gentler discount rate helps you, not hurts you. Favor balance sheets with net cash and positive free cash flow. Keep a 5-10% T‑bill sleeve to buy dislocations. Boring? Sure. Effective? Also yes.
• Real benefit to your finances: steadier coupon income, better entry points during wobble days, and fewer forced errors. When policy gets less asymmetric, no surprise hikes out of nowhere, valuation math behaves, and you avoid panic selling at the bottom. I’ve learned that one the expensive way…

A quick reality check so we’re not kidding ourselves: the Fed funds target sits near cycle highs, and sticky components like services inflation need time to cool. Rate relief comes when the data earn it. You’ll likely see it in the sequence: softer three‑month payroll average, a few tenths higher unemployment that stays higher, ECI easing, then core PCE running tame on a 3‑ and 6‑month annualized basis. That’s your green light, not a single Thursday claim print that gets everyone yelling on X.

Bottom line, turn weekly noise into disciplined positioning, not drama. Scale into duration, upgrade quality, hold liquidity, mind taxes, and keep watching the trend, not the tweet. If claims keep firming and the rest of the dashboard confirms, the market will price the path. You won’t need to guess the day; you’ll already be paid to wait.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How do I sanity-check a scary claims headline this Thursday?

A: Quick tip: ignore the single print. Look at the 4‑week average, check if continuing claims are rising too, and scan the revision from last week. In Q4, seasonal noise can swing 5-15k. If initials up but continuings flat, breathe. Probably churn, not collapse.

Q: What’s the difference between initial and continuing claims, and which one should I watch for rate‑cut odds?

A: Initial claims are first-time filings (fast, noisy, and often revised. Continuing claims are people still on benefits ) slower, stickier, and a better read on persistence. If initials rise for a week or two while continuings stay flat, that’s churn and often mean-reverts. If both climb for 4-8 weeks, that points to cooling labor demand and nudges the Fed toward cuts, assuming inflation isn’t re-accelerating. For context, in 2024 initials averaged low‑220k and continuings hovered ~1.8-1.9 million (DOL 2024). Earlier this year we drifted into mid‑220k to low‑230k with continuings in the high‑1.8m, softer than late 2023 but not alarming. Bottom line: watch the slope and duration, not just the level.

Q: Is it better to buy Treasuries before or after a weak claims print in Q4 2025?

A: If you’re trading headlines, spreads can move fast: a weak print can knock 2‑year yields 8-12 bps intraday and then snap back if revisions or seasonals explain it. For investors (not day‑traders), anchor to trend. If the 4‑week average rises +20-40k over 4-8 weeks and continuings climb too, adding duration (e.g., 3-7 year Treasuries) tends to work as the market prices cuts. If it’s one noisy week, consider buying on the reversal, not the headline. Practical moves: ladder T‑bills if you need near-term cash, keep dry powder for post-print volatility, and avoid chasing at the wides. Personally, I prefer scaling in 1/3‑1/3‑1/3 over several Thursdays; Q4 revisions can be messy and I hate paying the panic premium.

Q: Should I worry about one big jump in jobless claims or wait for a trend?

A: Wait for a trend. A common rule-of-thumb (seen across 1990-2023 cycle studies): a sustained 4-8 week rise in the 4‑week average by roughly +20-40k tends to precede higher unemployment by 1-3 months. One or two spikes? Could be holidays, auto retooling, or plain seasonality. Examples: 1) One-week pop of +25k in initials, continuings flat, I treat it as noise; consider selling a bit of duration strength or leave it alone. 2) Four straight weeks where the 4‑week average is up +5-10k each and continuings grind higher, I start extending duration modestly (add 3-7 year Treasuries), trim cyclicals, and favor higher‑quality credit. 3) Trend plus soft inflation prints, that’s when I move more decisively: extend to 7-10 years, refinance floating-rate debt if possible, and lock CDs before cuts. Also, remember Q4 revisions can swing 5-15k; always re-check the prior week before reacting.

@article{do-rising-jobless-claims-signal-imminent-rate-cuts,
    title   = {Do Rising Jobless Claims Signal Imminent Rate Cuts?},
    author  = {Beeri Sparks},
    year    = {2025},
    journal = {Bankpointe},
    url     = {https://bankpointe.com/articles/jobless-claims-rate-cuts/}
}