Can We Afford One Income with Rising Unemployment?

From one paycheck in the 80s to two in 2025: what changed?

Back in the 80s, one paycheck could cover the mortgage, a sedan with suspicious wood paneling, and maybe a beach week if the A/C didn’t die. Today, two incomes feel like the baseline. Not because we suddenly love working more (I don’t), but because the fixed costs baked into a modern household are heavier, stickier, than they used to be.

Here’s the backdrop in 2025. Wages did jump after the pandemic, but a lot of prices reset higher and stayed there. Inflation cooled last year, BLS says 2024 CPI inflation ran 3.4% for the year, but price levels didn’t roll back. Since 2019, overall prices are up roughly 20% through the end of 2024 (BLS CPI). That’s the part that bites: the base moved.

Quick reality check: one-income math isn’t impossible. It’s just tighter, and the margin for error is thinner in Q3 2025 than it was five or ten years ago.

The drivers:

• Childcare: Child Care Aware of America pegged the 2023 average annual cost of center-based care at about $11,582 nationwide; many states run far higher. 2024 saw additional increases in a lot of metros, and not much relief this year.
• Healthcare premiums: KFF reported the average employer family premium at $24,275 in 2024, with workers kicking in about $6,575. Even single coverage isn’t cheap.
• Housing: Mortgage rates are still elevated, 30-year averages hovered around the high-6% range earlier this year (Freddie Mac data), and median rents remain near record levels per Zillow’s 2025 readings. Housing eats first.
• Student loans: Payments resumed in late 2023; typical monthly payments often land in the $200-$300 range, per Department of Education borrower data bands.
• Interest costs: Carrying a balance stings more. The Fed’s data shows average credit card APRs above 20% in 2024 (north of 22% on assessed interest). That hasn’t meaningfully eased in 2025.

Now layer on the job market. Unemployment has edged up this year, BLS summer prints sat around the mid‑4% range, and layoff announcements keep popping up in headlines (Challenger’s monthly trackers have multiple 2025 months running above their 2024 counterparts). Pair that with higher borrowing costs and, yeah, running a household on one income feels like threading a needle in a moving car.

So here’s what we’re doing in this piece: building a decision framework. Not vibes, not nostalgia for a simpler era. Numbers first, then strategy. We’ll map fixed costs versus truly variable ones, stress‑test against one paycheck (with real thresholds), and sequence actions, cash buffer, debt triage, insurance, income bridges, so you’re not guessing. My take, and it’s just that: if you can make one-income work on paper with conservative assumptions, you give yourself options; if you can’t, you know exactly which levers to pull to get closer, or when to wait. It’s adulting, but with a spreadsheet that actually helps.

A quick 2025 unemployment reality check

Quick sanity check before we start yanking levers: “rising unemployment” this year isn’t a cliff, it’s a slope. The BLS headline rate has been hanging in the mid‑4% range in 2025, think roughly 4.3%-4.5% from late spring through the summer prints. I’m going from memory here, but June was ~4.4% and July/August were in that same zip code. That’s up from parts of 2023, but not recession‑type levels. Labor force participation is stable to slightly softer: overall participation has hovered around ~62.6%-62.8% in 2025, while prime‑age (25-54) participation is still strong, roughly ~83.5%-83.7% per the monthly BLS tables. Translation: the job market is cooler, not frozen.

And the near‑real‑time stuff backs that up. Initial jobless claims, the weekly series from the Department of Labor, have mostly lived in the ~220k-240k range for much of this summer, with a couple weeks brushing toward ~250k. The 4‑week moving average smooths the noise and sits in the low‑to‑mid 230k’s recently. Continuing claims are higher than a year ago, broadly in the ~1.75-1.9 million range in 2025, which tells you it’s taking a bit longer to land the next role than it did in the hotter labor market. But we’re not seeing a vertical spike that screams “mass layoffs now.”

Two important caveats, because reality is messy:

• Sector nuance: Tech and media layoff headlines move fast, Challenger’s monthly trackers have several 2025 months running above their 2024 counterparts, but healthcare, education, and government hiring have been steadier. If your paycheck is tied to ad spend or venture funding, your risk looks different than a nurse or a city planner. Same macro, different micro exposure.
• States and timing: Weekly claims can bump around on seasonal quirks (auto retooling, school calendars). Don’t overreact to one week. Look for multi‑week trends in your state’s series; a sustained uptick across several weeks is the tell that local conditions are deteriorating.

So what does “mid‑4% unemployment” actually mean for your household plan? Here’s the simple way I frame it, imperfect, but useful:

Cash‑flow risk ≈ (probability of job loss over the next 6-12 months) × (time to reemployment) × (monthly essential spend that must be covered by one income).

Yeah, that’s a mouthful. But it forces you to connect the macro to your reality. If you’re in a stable sector, maybe your 12‑month layoff probability is 5-10%; if you’re in a churnier pocket of tech or media, maybe 15-25% is more honest right now. Time to reemployment? With continuing claims elevated, plan conservatively: 3-5 months is a reasonable baseline in 2025 unless you have niche, in‑demand skills or a signed offer pipeline. And if you’ve got childcare, rent, and a car payment, your essential spend might be, say, $5,000-$7,500 a month depending on your metro.

Put numbers on it:

• Example A (steadier sector): 10% layoff probability × 3 months × $6,000 = $1,800 of expected cash‑flow risk over 12 months. That’s basically saying a 3‑month buffer covers a low‑probability event.
• Example B (churnier sector): 20% × 5 months × $7,000 = $7,000 expected risk. That argues for a larger buffer and a faster move on expense cuts before you make the one‑income leap.

But here’s my take: don’t let a single BLS Friday or a spiky claims week push you into whiplash decisions. Track the trend, unemployment rate and participation monthly; claims weekly with a 4‑week average; your industry’s layoff chatter via Challenger and local news, and refresh your risk math quarterly. If the rate drifts toward high‑4s with participation slipping and continuing claims breaking higher for several weeks, you tighten. If we stabilize and prime‑age participation stays firm, you can be a bit bolder. It’s not perfect, and I wish it were cleaner, but this is how I’ve managed risk for clients for two decades, with numbers first, ego second.

The one‑income stress test (no fluff, just math)

Build a survival budget that assumes one paycheck and 2025 prices. We’re not pricing your current lifestyle, we’re pricing the version of your life that gets you through a rough patch without torching your long‑term plan. Essentials only:

• Housing: Rent or mortgage (PITI), HOA if applicable.
• Utilities: Power, water, sewer, trash, basic internet, phone.
• Groceries: Food at home. No restaurants, sorry.
• Transportation: Gas, tolls, parking, maintenance, minimum car insurance, public transit pass.
• Insurance: Auto, renters/home, term life on the earner, disability on the earner.
• Childcare: The minimum viable care that lets the earner actually work.
• Minimum debt payments: Student loans, credit cards, autos. No extra principal.
• Healthcare premiums: Price this carefully (details below).

On healthcare, be realistic and use real quotes, not vibes:

• Employer plan (remaining earner): If the working spouse adds the family, the cost is usually the worker’s payroll contribution for family coverage. For context, the 2023 KFF Employer Health Benefits Survey showed the average total family premium at $23,968, with workers contributing about $6,575 on average and employers covering the rest. Your 2025 payroll deduction could be higher or lower, pull the current HR sheet.
• COBRA: Full employer premium + 2% admin fee. Using that same 2023 average, that’s roughly $23,968 × 102% ≈ $24,447 per year (~$2,037/mo). It’s a gut punch, but it preserves your exact network and deductibles. If you’ve got ongoing treatment, price COBRA first.
• ACA marketplace (2025): Check your state exchange now with your one‑income estimate. Benchmark premiums vary a lot by age and zip code. For reference, KFF tracked a 4.1% average increase in benchmark exchange premiums in 2024, and many states’ 2025 filings pointed to mid‑single‑digit increases, so don’t assume it’s cheaper than last year. Subsidies phase with income; one‑income households sometimes qualify for meaningful credits.

Now cut everything to a survival number. That’s your essentials at today’s prices, plus only the items that prevent bigger costs later (basic maintenance, generic meds, the cheapest data plan that still lets you do your job search, etc.). Forget vacations and dining out. I know, it’s not fun. The point is resilience, not comfort.

Target cash: Save 3-6 months of this survival number, not your current spend. If your survival budget is $4,200/mo, your range is $12,600-$25,200. Quick sanity check: if your remaining net paycheck covers 100% of essentials plus a 10% buffer, you can usually bridge short unemployment spells without tapping investments at ugly times. Example: Essentials $4,200 → target paycheck after tax and payroll deductions ≥ $4,620. If you’re at $4,100, you’re short; either trim expenses more or add side income you can actually sustain.

Two small notes from the trenches:

• Mileage math: If you commute by car, build in wear‑and‑tear, not just gas. The IRS standard rate was $0.67/mi in 2024; it’s a reasonable proxy even if you don’t deduct it.
• Deductible shock: If switching plans, set aside the new deductible in cash. It’s annoying, but medical bills plus job stress is a brutal combo.

I may be oversimplifying because every family’s mix is messy, childcare schedules, union benefits, HSA quirks, you name it. If the math feels too granular, that’s normal. I still do this with a spreadsheet and a cup of coffee, and I’ve been at this for two decades. The humility piece here: price it with real quotes, rerun the math, and if it doesn’t fit, don’t force it. Plans break; cash doesn’t.

Benefits bridge: UI, severance, and healthcare without nasty surprises

Here’s the map I use on a whiteboard when one paycheck goes quiet. The goal is simple: swap the paycheck you lost with cash and coverage you can actually count on in 2025, and avoid the silly gotchas that chew up savings.

1) State Unemployment Insurance (UI). File immediately after separation, same day if you can. Your benefit amount and duration depend on the state and your recent earnings. Weekly maximums vary a lot by state and are updated each year. As reference points (2024 published figures): California max $450/week; Florida max $275/week (and as few as 12 weeks at low unemployment); Washington about $1,029/week; Massachusetts up to $1,033/week (more with dependents). 2025 caps shift by state every July-January window, so check your state’s labor site when you file. Some states have a “waiting week,” others don’t; either way, the claim’s effective date is what anchors your payments, so don’t wait for HR to “process paperwork.”

Severance and UI interaction. Timing matters. In many states, salary continuation postpones UI eligibility, while a lump sum often doesn’t (or is prorated differently). Before you sign, ask HR, in writing, how they’ll report severance to the state. If they code it as wages through a future date, your UI could get kicked out for weeks. You can negotiate: a lump sum, a shorter continuation period, or a separation date that avoids a zero-benefit gap. Not glamorous, but it’s real money.

2) Health coverage: COBRA vs ACA marketplace. Confirm your employer plan’s end date before signing. Some plans end the day of separation; others run through month-end (this one trips people). COBRA gives you the same plan for generally 18 months, but at full cost: your share + the employer share + up to a 2% admin fee. That adds up fast. You have a 60-day election window and it’s retroactive if you need it for a late bill, but don’t pay for coverage you won’t use.

Compare COBRA to an ACA marketplace plan for 2025. The enhanced subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act still cap the benchmark Silver premium at a max of 8.5% of household income for the year, and there’s no hard 400% FPL cliff in 2025. For subsidy calculations, marketplaces use 2024 Federal Poverty Level numbers in 2025: $15,060 for a single person and $31,200 for a family of four in the contiguous states (Alaska/Hawaii differ). If your projected 2025 income dips, a Silver plan with cost-sharing reductions might beat COBRA on total cost, especially if you expect some care but not a ton (Silver plan actuarial value is around 70%). Update your income during the year; you’ll reconcile on Form 8962 at tax time.

3) HSAs, FSAs, and receipts. If you’ve got an HSA, that money is yours after separation, use it tax-free for qualified expenses. 2025 HSA limits are $4,300 self-only and $8,550 family (plus a $1,000 catch-up at 55+), but you only contribute for months you’re HSA-eligible. Keep your EOBs and receipts; you’ll report on Form 8889. FSAs are trickier: most are “use-it-or-lose-it,” but you may have a run-out period to submit 2025 claims after you leave. If you have a positive FSA balance, you might be able to elect COBRA for the FSA to keep access for the rest of the plan year. Sounds odd, but it can save hundreds.

Quick checklist to prevent cash leaks:

• File UI the day you separate; set a reminder to certify weekly.
• Before signing: confirm severance structure, separation date, and how HR reports it to the state.
• Get the exact date health coverage ends; don’t assume month-end.
• Price COBRA vs marketplace plans side-by-side. Model the deductible and OOP max, not just premiums.
• Estimate 2025 income for ACA subsidies, then adjust if interviews stretch longer than planned.
• List HSA/FSA balances, deadlines, and who’s on the plan. Keep receipts in one folder, paper or a phone scan.

Small reality check: cash burn always feels around 7% worse than your spreadsheet says, because life keeps punching, copays, kid’s braces, the random tire. Build that cushion on purpose.

If this feels like a lot, it is. I still jot it on a legal pad first, dates, amounts, who to call, and work left to right. The bridge works best when you time the pieces together: start UI now, structure severance smartly, lock the right health plan, and let your HSA/FSA mop up the rest. Then, yeah, back to the job hunt.

Housing, loans, and the triage list when cash is tight

Here’s the order I use when money’s tight and stress is loud: protect the roof, protect the job hunt, protect the credit profile. In that order. The lenders have a playbook. Use their playbook. Don’t go silent and hope, it backfires.

• Mortgage or rent first. Missing housing payments snowballs fast and landlords move quicker than people think. If you see a gap coming, call before you miss. Ask your mortgage servicer about hardship forbearance or a temporary payment reduction. Servicers would rather document a short-term plan than open a full loss-mit file. With rent, propose something specific, “half on the 1st, balance on the 15th”, and get it in writing. I’ve negotiated those split-month deals myself when a bonus slipped.
• Student loans: switch to income-driven ASAP. Payments can fall fast when household income drops. The SAVE plan uses 225% of the poverty line and can set payments as low as 5% of discretionary income for undergrad debt and 10% for grad debt. If income dips enough, the formula can generate a $0 payment while you’re unemployed, yes, $0 is a valid payment. This matters in 2025 servicing, with servicers overloaded and errors popping up… so submit the IDR request online and upload pay stubs (or UI). Re-certify early if your income fell earlier this year.
• Credit cards: stabilize, don’t sprint. Call and say the quiet part out loud: “Hardship program, please.” Ask for a reduced APR and a fixed payment plan. Fed data showed the average APR on assessed credit card accounts was about 22% in 2024, so every point shaved helps. Balance transfers? Only if the math works. Typical transfer fees run 3-5%; if you won’t pay it off before the promo expires, you just paid a toll to stand in the same traffic.
• Auto and insurance: keep the lights on, not the leather seats. Raise deductibles to cut premiums and shop carriers, BLS reported motor vehicle insurance premiums rose about 19% year over year in 2024, and increases have stuck around in 2025, which is brutal. Do not let liability coverage lapse. Gaps lead to higher future rates and claims risk you really don’t want while job hunting. If the car loan is upside-down and payments are choking cash flow, talk to the lender about extensions or a short deferral; get it documented.

Why this order? Eviction/foreclosure risk beats everything. Then your job search. A car that runs, a phone that works, and a calm credit file keep interviews moving. Credit cards are elastic but noisy; you’re buying time and preventing late marks that haunt your score for 7 years. I’m repeating myself because it matters, call before you miss. Call before you miss.

A quick triage script that’s worked for me (and clients):

1. List the next 60 days of bills with due dates. Circle housing, auto, insurance, phone.
2. Call mortgage/landlord, servicer, card issuers, and insurer. Ask for hardship terms; write names, dates, and promises.
3. Enroll in SAVE or another IDR right now; don’t wait for the next due date.
4. Freeze nonessential spending for two cycles. Yeah, it’s annoying. It’s temporary.

Small market reality: unemployment has ticked up from last year’s lows and insurance/premium costs are still sticky, so cash cushions evaporate faster than you plan… which is why proactive calls beat perfect budgets.

If you’re wondering, can we afford one income with rising unemployment? Maybe, but only if the big four above are stabilized first. Missed housing or insurance payments are expensive mistakes. Missed calls are, too. Use their playbook, get terms in writing, and buy yourself the time you actually need to land the next role.

Taxes and retirement on one paycheck: don’t overcorrect

When a household shifts to one income, the tax and retirement settings usually lag behind reality. Fixing that fast helps cash flow without blowing up April 15. Start with withholding. Update the remaining earner’s Form W‑4 to reflect one job and one paycheck (use the “only two jobs” checkbox if it applies, or zero out the second job). Use the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator and plug in the one-income picture for 2025. The brackets are inflation-adjusted again this year, so a clean W‑4 usually puts a few extra dollars per check back in your pocket without risking a surprise. Small thing I do: I run it twice, once aiming to break even, and once targeting a tiny refund, to see which feels right given cash needs.

Next, don’t torch retirement momentum. If you need to pause, pause the expensive stuff first, matchless contributions to a 401(k)/403(b) or backdoor moves that require cash you don’t have. But try to keep at least the employer match if the numbers allow. Free money is still free money. For reference, the 401(k) employee deferral limit was $23,000 in 2024 (catch-up $7,500 for ages 50+). 2025 limits are indexed and typically nudge higher, but the principle is the same: match first, fancy later.

Spousal IRA can be a lifesaver in a one-income year. If you file jointly and the working spouse has enough taxable compensation, the nonworking spouse can still contribute to an IRA. In 2024, the IRA contribution limit was $7,000 (with a $1,000 catch-up for 50+). Deductibility phases depend on workplace coverage: in 2024, if the contributing spouse wasn’t covered but married to someone who was, the deduction phased out for joint MAGI between $230,000-$240,000. If the contributor was covered, the MFJ phase-out was $123,000-$143,000 in 2024. 2025 limits and phase-outs adjust with inflation; use the 2025 IRS tables, but those 2024 numbers give you a ballpark. Point is, you can keep retirement contributions alive even when one partner’s paycheck goes to zero.

On estimated taxes, if the laid-off spouse starts 1099 work or consulting, don’t wait for a big April bill with penalties. Safe-harbor rules are your friend: pay in at least 90% of your 2025 total tax, or 100% of your 2024 total tax (110% if your 2024 AGI was over $150,000), split across the quarterly due dates, and you generally avoid underpayment penalties. That rule hasn’t changed in years, and it’s built for choppy income. Mechanically, you can either increase the W‑2 spouse’s withholding (works instantly and counts as paid ratably) or send quarterly 1040‑ES payments. I usually prefer bumping withholding, it’s one less calendar reminder.

Real talk for a second. It’s tempting to slam contributions to zero “until things settle.” I’ve done it. The catch is, “until” can be six months, and restarting is oddly hard. You don’t need perfection, keep the match, park $50/month in a spousal IRA if that’s what’s doable, and revisit in 60-90 days when the job search has traction. Momentum matters more than optics here.

Quick checklist to keep it clean:

• Update W‑4 for one-income status using the IRS estimator (2025 inputs).
• Keep employer match; pause only matchless deferrals if cash is tight.
• Open/fund a spousal IRA if eligible (use 2025 limits; 2024 reference: $7,000 + $1,000 catch-up).
• If 1099 income starts, use safe harbor (90% current year, or 100%/110% of last year) via withholding or quarterlies.

Unemployment has nudged higher from last year’s lows, and premiums are still sticky, which means cash buffers drain faster than forecasts. Smart withholding and safe-harbor planning buy you time, without tipping interest and penalties into the mix.

So, can you really run on one income right now?

Short answer: yes in 2025, but only if the math works on paper before it meets the real world. And I do mean on paper first, spreadsheets lie less when you make them ugly and honest.

Use a quick signal check. Color-code it. Keep emotions out of it for 20 minutes and just run the numbers with your actual bills and your actual after-tax pay.

• Green light: Remaining net income (after taxes and FICA) covers monthly essentials plus a 10% buffer; you’ve got 6+ months in an emergency fund based on “survival spend” (not your full lifestyle), and a specific healthcare plan chosen (employer, COBRA, or ACA). If that’s you, proceed, with a written 90‑day review on the calendar.
• Yellow light: Shortfall under 15%. Close the gap with temporary cuts (streaming, daycare tweaks, auto insurance re-shop), unemployment insurance if eligible, and a small side income. Set a 90‑day reevaluation. UI typically replaces ~40-50% of prior wages for up to 26 weeks in many states, which can bridge a modest gap without burning the emergency fund on day one.
• Red light: Shortfall 15%+ and cash is under 3 months of survival spend. Delay the one‑income move, build savings, or secure a part‑time W‑2 to stabilize with predictable withholding. I know it’s not the romantic answer. It’s the solvency answer.

Why the caution this year? Two headwinds you can’t hand‑wave. First, the labor market has softened: the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.3% in August 2025 (BLS), up from last year’s lows, which means job searches are taking longer on average. Second, health costs are sticky: the average annual employer family premium was $23,968 in 2023 (KFF) and rose again in 2024; ACA benchmark silver premiums increased heading into 2025 in many states, mid‑single digits on average. Translation: cash drains faster than your 2022 playbook assumes.

Okay, how to actually run the test. I over-explain this because it’s where people trip:

1. List essentials: rent/mortgage, basic utilities, groceries, insurance, minimum debt payments, transportation, childcare. That’s your survival spend.
2. Compute net income: use your latest paystubs and a fresh W‑4 (2025 IRS estimator) to reflect one‑income status. Don’t forget payroll deductions that vanish if someone leaves, like FSA or dental.
3. Check the buffer: net income minus essentials should be at least +10%. If not, jump to Yellow or Red.
4. Validate healthcare: pick the actual plan and premium now. COBRA can cost 102% of the prior premium; ACA may qualify for subsidies, but only if your projected 2025 MAGI fits. Price it today, not later this year.
5. Confirm runway: emergency fund months = (cash + expected UI + small side income) ÷ survival spend. Round down. If it’s under 3, you’re Red. At 6+, you’re Green.

Contingency plan, pre-baked:

• Green: proceed, automate a 10% buffer sweep to savings, keep the employer match, and calendar a 90‑day check on actuals vs plan.
• Yellow: implement $300-$600/mo temporary cuts, file for UI day one, add a 5-10 hour/week W‑2 or 1099 that nets $200-$400/week. If the shortfall isn’t closed in 90 days, pause and reassess.
• Red: extend timeline 3-6 months, redirect discretionary spend to cash, pre‑arrange a part‑time W‑2 with steady hours, and keep benefits through year‑end if open enrollment timing helps.

Signal check meets 2025 reality: unemployment at 4.3% (Aug 2025, BLS) and sticky premiums mean you need the 10% buffer and 6 months of runway. If your sheet says it works, great. If it doesn’t, don’t force it, tweak the plan, not the arithmetic.

Bottom line: in 2025 it’s feasible for a lot of households, but only if the numbers clear the Green test before you make the leap. I’ve seen too many families “hope” their way through Yellow. Don’t. Write the math, follow the signals, and give yourself permission to change course in 90 days if reality says so.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How do I test if my household can run on one income in 2025?

A: Do a 60-day trial. Direct the smaller paycheck to savings and force all bills through the larger income. Build a one-income budget using today’s prices (housing at current rates, childcare at your local quote, premiums from your HR portal). Add a 10% buffer for “life happens.” Prioritize essentials, minimum debt payments, and insurance. If cash flow is positive for two months, lock it in: automate, then build a 4-6 month emergency fund.

Q: What’s the difference between cutting variable costs and tackling fixed costs, what actually moves the needle?

A: Variable cuts (food delivery, travel, subscriptions) are quick wins but often fade. Fixed costs, housing, childcare, insurance, debt, are heavier and recurring, so reductions there compound. Examples that matter: negotiate rent at renewal, consider a lower-premium health plan if your usage is low, refinance/recast or recast your mortgage if cash allows, move high-rate card balances to a 0% promo (if you’ll pay it off), pick a smaller daycare tier or flex schedules. One or two fixed-cost changes usually beat a dozen latte bans.

Q: Is it better to keep both working and pay for childcare, or have one parent pause work?

A: Run it like a breakeven. Compare the after-tax income of the lower-earning spouse to the fully loaded cost of working.

Include: (1) childcare net of any dependent care FSA; average center-based care ran about $11,582 in 2023 per Child Care Aware, with many metros higher in 2024/2025. Get your actual quote. (2) commuting, meals, wardrobe, and the “time tax.” (3) healthcare: will you lose the cheaper employer plan? KFF showed 2024 average family premiums of $24,275 with workers paying ~$6,575, switching plans can swing this a lot. (4) benefits value: 401(k) match, HSA seed, ESPP discount, real money. (5) taxes and credits: Child/dependent care credit, dependent care FSA, and state credits can offset costs. (6) long-run career impact: a 2-3 year pause can reduce future earnings growth; apply a discount but don’t ignore it.

Example quick math: If the second earner brings home $45k after tax, childcare is $18k net, commuting/other $4k, lost benefits $3k, and you’d forfeit a $2k 401(k) match, you’re netting ~$18k for working (~$1.5k/month). If the alternative saves similar stress and allows side income or upskilling, pausing might pencil. If healthcare would jump or you’d lose seniority, staying may be smarter. I’ve done this calc with clients, numbers, not vibes, should decide.

Q: Should I worry about unemployment ticking up if we’re trying to live on one income?

A: Worry? No. Prepare? Yes. In Q3 2025 the margin for error is thinner. Build 4-6 months of core expenses in cash, line up a home equity line before you need it, and keep minimum payments auto-drafted. Freeze discretionary spends, prioritize health insurance continuity, and keep a current resume plus a short list of target employers. Think of it like defensive driving for your budget.

@article{can-we-afford-one-income-with-rising-unemployment,
    title   = {Can We Afford One Income with Rising Unemployment?},
    author  = {Beeri Sparks},
    year    = {2025},
    journal = {Bankpointe},
    url     = {https://bankpointe.com/articles/one-income-rising-unemployment/}
}