How a Tariff Ruling Could Affect Credit Card Rewards

The costliest mistake: chasing points while carrying debt I’ve watched this play out a thousand times on trading floors and in family kitchens: someone swipes for 3% cash back, then pays 20%+ APR on the balance. That math doesn’t pencil. The Federal Reserve reported the average APR on accounts assessed interest was 22.8% in Q4 2023 (G.19), and it stayed above 20% through 2024. Even if you’re earning a solid 2% rewards rate, the interest meter runs 10x faster when you don’t pay in full. That’s the budget leak most people miss because the statement shows the points, but the…

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Best Recession-Proof AI ETFs for Retirees in 2025

The hidden cost you’re probably ignoring: sequence risk meets AI hype The hidden cost you’re probably ignoring isn’t the fund expense ratio or the bid/ask spread, it’s bad returns early in retirement. Sequence-of-returns risk is the budget-killer that doesn’t show up in glossy ETF fact sheets. Take a simple example: you retire with $1,000,000, plan to pull 4% ($40,000), and your portfolio drops 20% in year one. After withdrawals, you’re at about $768,000. Keep taking $40,000 and your effective withdrawal rate just jumped to ~5.2%, without you doing anything “wrong.” Do that in the first 5-10 years, and you’re locking…

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Where to Keep Cash as the Job Market Weakens

Old-school mattress vs. modern cash stack Old-school cash management was simple: dump money in a savings account, cross your fingers, and promise yourself you’ll “deal with it later.” That used to be fine when paychecks felt steady and yields were basically zero anyway. But a softer job market changes the math. When the risk of an income gap goes up, where your cash sits starts to matter a lot more, what it earns, how quickly you can tap it, and whether it’s actually insured. I’ve seen too many people learn that lesson the hard way, good savers, wrong buckets. Quick…

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Best Investing Strategy if the Fed Delays Rate Cuts in 2025

Old 60/40 vs. 2025’s higher-for-longer reality The old playbook was simple: the Fed cuts, duration rallies, cyclicals rip, and everyone high‑fives their asset allocation. This year, that script is… stickier. If policy rates stay elevated longer, remember, the fed funds target has sat at 5.25%-5.50% since July 2023, then discount rates don’t bail you out as fast, multiples don’t drift higher on autopilot, and financing costs keep nibbling (sometimes chomping) at free cash flow. Cash still pays you real money, 3‑month T‑bills have been north of 5% across most of 2024 and 2025, while parts of the equity market are…

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Best Safe Investments for a Job Market Slowdown

Cash isn’t lazy, ignorance is: the myth that hurts you in a slowdown Cash isn’t lazy, ignorance is. The “cash is trash” meme works when hiring is booming and money is free. That was 2021. This year is different. In a softer job market, liquidity buys you time and options. That’s not market timing, it’s risk management. I’ve sat in enough investment committee rooms to know the fastest way to blow up a plan is to confuse bravery with prudence. Safety is a strategy, not a personality trait. Quick reality check. Hiring has cooled. The BLS Job Openings series peaked…

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Emergency Fund or Invest in a Weak Job Market?

The costliest mistake right now: being forced to sell at the worst time I’ve sat across too many kitchen tables where the story was the same: job wobbles, bills pile up, market’s off 10-15%, and the “long-term portfolio” becomes an ATM. That’s the wealth killer. Not missing a 3% rally. It’s being forced to liquidate at lousy prices because cash ran dry. I’ve watched more wealth get destroyed by emergency selling than by bad stock picks, decade after decade. It’s brutal because it compounds, bad timing, taxes, penalties, and the psychological scar that keeps you from getting back in. Is…

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Can We Afford One Income with Rising Unemployment?

From one paycheck in the 80s to two in 2025: what changed? Back in the 80s, one paycheck could cover the mortgage, a sedan with suspicious wood paneling, and maybe a beach week if the A/C didn’t die. Today, two incomes feel like the baseline. Not because we suddenly love working more (I don’t), but because the fixed costs baked into a modern household are heavier, stickier, than they used to be. Here’s the backdrop in 2025. Wages did jump after the pandemic, but a lot of prices reset higher and stayed there. Inflation cooled last year, BLS says 2024…

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How Will 911k Job Revision Affect Stocks

The priciest mistake right now: ignoring revisions, not the headline jobs print The priciest mistake right now: ignoring revisions, not the headline jobs print. If you treat the first Friday payroll headline like gospel, your portfolio’s running on bad wiring. Traders pile into the initial nonfarm payroll (NFP) release, move rates, rejig earnings models… and then barely glance at the revision trail that actually tells you where the economy was. That’s the real killer. Because this year we’re staring at roughly a 911,000 downward revision to earlier payroll counts in 2025 reporting, a hole big enough to change the story…

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Adjust Your Retirement Portfolio After a Weak Jobs Report

A weak jobs report isn’t a recession, remember 33 days in 2020 A weak jobs report isn’t a recession, remember 33 days in 2020. The stat that resets expectations: in March 2020, the S&P 500 fell about 34% in just 33 days and then went on to hit new highs later that same year (2020). That’s your reminder that markets can move a lot faster than the economy, and faster than our nerves, too. I still have the coffee-stained notepad from my desk that month, futures were limit down in the morning and green by lunch. Whiplash city. One month…

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