What pros wish you knew about EU cloud and tariffs right now Here’s the thing: two “boring” levers, where EU workloads actually live and how tariff refunds get booked, are nudging tech earnings in 2025 in ways screens miss. The market often slaps a sticky-note that says “one-time,” then moves on. But some of these items aren’t truly one-time, or they repeat with a lag. That gap is where alpha hides, especially when a few basis points on margins or cash conversion can swing a stock on a slow August Tuesday, you know? On the EU cloud shift: it’s not…

Old school vs. right-now: taxes, trade, and your stocks Look, the old playbook said policy noise was just that, noise. You bought quality, you waited, you didn’t lose sleep over tax footnotes. That worked when rules didn’t change much. This year feels different. Tiny tweaks, buyback taxes, global minimum tax rules, targeted tariffs, are hitting where it hurts: after-tax earnings, cash flows, and the multiple the market is willing to pay by, you know, next Tuesday. Why 2025 matters: We’re staring at the end of 2025 with parts of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act up in the air.…

Old-school vs. now: does a strong dollar still matter for S&P 500 investors? Old-school playbook said the dollar didn’t really move the needle for broad U.S. equities. You focused on domestic demand, margins, maybe oil, and called it a day. FX was a stock-picker’s headache, not an index problem. Here’s the thing: that world’s kind of gone. The S&P 500 today is packed with mega-cap multinationals that price globally, source globally, and report in dollars. A stronger greenback now leaks into reported earnings, and, occassionally, into the multiple investors are willing to pay, way more than it used to. Look,…

The quiet EPS killers nobody budgets for Look, earnings per share lives and dies on stuff most people never model in their pretty spreadsheets. Two culprits keep showing up this year: one-off tariff refunds and a dollar that’s a little too strong for comfort. Both can make margins look better or worse in ways that feel operational but aren’t. If you’re wondering why comps are messy in 2025, that’s a big reason. FX is still a headwind for multinationals, and the refund checks that helped last year don’t repeat on schedule. I’ve watched this movie since the early-2000s, and it…