The not-so-secret tell: the Fed cares about trends, not headlines Here’s the not-so-secret tell: the Fed cares about trends, not headlines. A single ugly jobs Friday doesn’t swing policy. A pattern does. Pros watch whether the labor market is drifting, not whether it just had a bad hair day. That’s why the question people are really asking, often without saying it, is “will-rising-unemployment-trigger-fed-rate-cuts?” The answer depends on trend signals that stack up over weeks and months, not one print that lights up X for six hours. The cleanest one is the Sahm Rule. Quick version: it triggers when the three-month…

What pros do when rates move: they map the lags, not the headlines Here’s how the pros handle rate moves in Q4 2025: they map the lags, not the headlines. Seasoned PMs and CFOs sort everything into two buckets before they touch a budget or a portfolio, what resets fast when the Fed moves, and what doesn’t. That sounds obvious, but it’s the difference between a clean Q4 and a messy one. Variable-rate debt like credit cards and HELOCs adjust in weeks; rents and a lot of services prices take 6-18 months to reflect tighter or easier policy. And they…

No, rate cuts don’t magically fix everything Quick reality check: a Fed rate cut changes the price of money fast. It doesn’t rewrite wage contracts, renegotiate your office lease, or refill a retailer’s margin in time for Black Friday. I’ve seen too many investors chase the first cut like it’s a green light, only to get sideswiped by sticky prices or a pickup in layoffs. And yes, I’ve worn that t‑shirt, twice. The plumbing of credit responds quickly; real-world balance sheets don’t. Here’s what you’ll actually get out of this section, and I’ll be blunt about it because it’s Q4…