Should I Sell My House Before a Recession? Pro Playbook

How the pros decide: sell now or ride the cycle

When recession chatter gets loud in Q4, the pros don’t panic-sell or romanticize the “spring bounce.” They open a spreadsheet. They run cash flows, not feelings. And they map any sell/hold decision to three levers: cash flow, time horizon, and risk capacity. Same playbook works for your house. Boring? Maybe. Effective? Yeah.

Here’s the frame I use with clients (and on my own place, which, yes, has a roof that suddenly wants attention every October): decide what you’re improve first. Are you trying to: maximize net proceeds, reduce monthly risk, or reposition into a different market? Each objective implies a different move and a different clock. Pros make that explicit up front so they’re not negotiating with themselves halfway through.

Treat the home like an asset on a balance sheet, not a family heirloom. That means documenting:

• Equity: today’s likely sale price minus debt and transaction costs (broker, transfer taxes, prep).
• Debt structure: rate, payment, prepay penalties. If you’ve got a sub-4% mortgage, that embedded financing has real option value.
• Carrying costs: taxes, insurance, HOA, maintenance, capex you’ve been deferring.
• Optionality: ability to rent, list quickly, bridge finance, or buy before you sell. I almost typed “liquidity optionality”: which is just a fancy way to say: how fast can you move without lighting money on fire.

Then separate risk into two buckets:

• Market risk: prices, rates, and liquidity you can’t control.
• Personal risk: job stability, cash reserves, and household volatility you can improve quickly.

Seasonality matters. A lot. Unadjusted sales tend to trough in December and peak in late spring. NAR’s unadjusted existing-home sales data (2012-2023 average) shows June activity is roughly one-third higher than December. And buyer traffic usually fades into the holidays. In 2024, public brokerage dashboards showed Q4 buyer activity and new listings stepping down from spring peaks, with December materially lighter than May. Translation: Q4 can be thinner. Spring usually improves liquidity and tightens days-on-market, which can mean better odds of clean offers.

Also, do not anchor to 2021 prices or 2023 mortgage rates. Buyers this year are qualifying off current affordability, not pandemic-era money. Use current comps, current DOM, and current rate sheets. Anecdote: I’ve watched more deals blow up from “we need last year’s number” than from inspection drama. Reality wins.

What you’ll get from this section: a simple checklist the pros actually use to decide whether to sell now or ride the cycle. We’ll translate those three levers into choices you can execute without second-guessing every headline.

Quick seasonality fact: December is consistently the lowest month for unadjusted existing-home sales in NAR’s historical data, while June is typically the highest (2012-2023 pattern). Plan your liquidity.

Okay, I’m getting a little amped now because this part saves people real money: we’ll map your objective to a timing window, price discipline, and risk cap, and show how a “sell now” path compares to a “hold to spring” path in dollars, not vibes. If I slip into jargon, nudge me; I’ll translate. The goal is clarity you can take to your agent, your lender, or your spreadsheet tonight.

Recession ≠ housing crash: what actually moves home prices

Short version: recessions don’t automatically crush home prices. They can, but it’s not the recession itself; it’s the mix of supply, employment, credit, and monthly payment power. If you want a mental model you can use on your street, use those four.

History first. The 2007-2012 bust wasn’t about GDP; it was about credit and forced supply. S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller shows national prices fell roughly 26% peak‑to‑trough (mid‑2006 to early 2012), and the 20‑City Composite dropped about a third. That slide was fueled by exotic loans resetting, no‑doc underwriting, and then a wave of foreclosures/short sales that dumped inventory onto the market. That’s forced supply. It overwhelms even decent demand.

Now compare that to the 2020 recession. Mortgage rates collapsed (Freddie Mac’s 30‑yr fixed hit a record ~2.65% in January 2021), inventory tightened, and household balance sheets were oddly strong. Case‑Shiller national prices rose: up double digits in 2020, and about 18-19% in 2021. From early 2020 to mid‑2022, the national index climbed on the order of ~40%. Same word “recession,” totally different outcome because credit stayed clean and supply was scarce.

Okay, circling back to what actually matters now (Q4 2025):

• Inventory trends: Active listings are the pressure valve. When new listings slow and months’ supply stays lean, prices tend to hold. When you get a flood (job losses, investor exits), sellers start undercutting each other. I’m not going to quote a specific months’ supply for your zip (it changes weekly ) but track your metro’s active listings and price cuts share. Rising price cuts = softening.
• Unemployment trajectory: Prices wobble when job losses create forced sellers. A 1-2 point jump in the unemployment rate historically pushes days on market up and boosts concessions. If layoffs stay localized, price damage stays local.
• Payment power (rate × price × taxes/insurance): This is the demand throttle. A quick math gut‑check: a $500k loan costs about $2,110/mo at 3% vs ~ $3,325/mo at 7% (principal & interest only). That ~$1,200 swing per month changes who can bid, and how high.
• Credit quality/liquidity risk: Even without distress, thinner buyer pools in a recession widen bid‑ask spreads and stretch days on market. I’ve sat at plenty of Q4 closings where the only thing that changed was time, and the seller blinked first.

One more thing that always gets lost in national headlines: local beats national. During 2020-2022, inbound migration and scarce building pushed places like Austin, Boise, and parts of Florida into turbo mode; in 2022-2023, some of those metros gave back mid‑teens as rates reset and investors stepped aside. Meanwhile, Midwest markets with steady employment and modest new supply barely flinched. Your result will track your metro’s job base, building pipeline, and net migration, not the national average.

So no, “recession” isn’t the switch. The switch is whether supply is forced, whether buyers can pay at prevailing rates, and whether jobs hold. If you want a rule of thumb: falling rates + tight inventory + stable jobs tends to support prices (2020-2022 playbook). Credit stress + rising unemployment + forced listings is where you get 2008‑style air pockets. And if I muddled that earlier (sorry ) the sequence matters: credit and jobs set supply, supply sets price behavior.

Data pins you can trust: Case‑Shiller national peak‑to‑trough decline ~26% (2006-2012); 20‑City Composite about ~33%. Case‑Shiller national gains were double‑digit in 2020 and ~18.8% in 2021. Freddie Mac PMMS recorded a 30‑yr fixed low of ~2.65% in Jan 2021; rates are much higher in 2025, which means payment power is the chokepoint this cycle.

Your personal P&L: timeline, equity, taxes, and carry costs

Treat this like a mini deal model. Not a spreadsheet epic, just a practical run-through. What’s your runway, what clears after tax, and can you comfortably carry the place if the market softens? Earlier I said credit and jobs set supply, and supply sets price behavior. Let me circle back because it matters here: if your own cash flow is tight, you become potential supply. Your micro P&L can nudge the macro, a little.

1) Time horizon

• 6-12 months: Price and prep for speed. Speed reduces uncertainty, and in a higher-rate environment than 2021 (Freddie Mac’s PMMS showed a ~2.65% 30‑yr fixed low in Jan 2021; 2025 is nowhere near that), payment power is the chokepoint. Fresh paint, minor fixes, pre-inspection, and a realistic list price beat the heroic ask-then-chop routine.
• 3-5 years: You can ride some volatility. Case‑Shiller’s national peak‑to‑trough drawdown was about 26% from 2006-2012, but the pandemic-era snapback was big, national gains were double‑digit in 2020 and ~18.8% in 2021. Point is, swings happen. With a multi‑year window, you don’t need to force a sale into a soft month.

2) Equity math (back-of-envelope is fine):

1. Estimated sale price minus selling costs (agent + transfer + staging; plan on 6-10%).
2. Minus mortgage payoff (check your latest payoff quote, don’t forget any prepayment oddities).
3. Minus prep/repairs you’ll do to sell.

Example: $800,000 price, 7% selling costs ($56,000), $520,000 payoff, $15,000 prep = $209,000 gross equity. That’s gross, taxes next.

3) Taxes (this is where people trip):

• Primary home exclusion (IRC §121): If you owned and lived in it for 2 of the last 5 years, up to $250k gain is excluded if single, $500k if married filing jointly. Keep your closing disclosures and improvement receipts; basis matters.
• If it was ever a rental: Prior depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%. You can’t exclude depreciation recapture under §121. A lot of accidental landlords forget this, then, surprise, larger tax bill.
• NIIT (3.8%): The Net Investment Income Tax can apply depending on income. The statutory MAGI thresholds have been $200k (single), $250k (MFJ), $125k (MFS) since 2013; check where your 2025 income lands. Your CPA will knit this together with state rules.

Quick reality check: if that $209k gross equity includes, say, $120k of gain and you qualify for §121, your federal tax may be minimal. If you don’t qualify, and you took $30k of depreciation when it was a rental, expect up to 25% on that $30k plus capital gains on the rest, and maybe NIIT. Different paths, very different after‑tax checks.

4) Carrying costs if you don’t sell right away:

• Monthly nut: mortgage (P&I), property taxes, insurance, HOA, utilities, maintenance. Also budget vacancy and a sanity reserve, things break exactly when you’re busy.
• Opportunity cost of trapped equity: Risk‑free yields are ~4-5% this year on short Treasuries. $200k of equity parked in a house you don’t want is $8-10k/yr you’re not earning elsewhere, call it your invisible carry.
• Liquidity cushion: Before taking on a second home or tolerating a slow sale, build a 6-12 month cash buffer for housing + living costs. Job and bonus risk rise when growth cools; it’s not dramatic, just prudent. I’ve been on the wrong side of a bonus swing, it stings more when you’re double‑carrying.

5) Sanity check model (I do this on a yellow pad):

• Run 3 sale prices: base, -5%, -10%.
• Layer in 6-10% selling costs, your payoff, and prep. Note §121 eligibility and any depreciation.
• Compare after‑tax proceeds to your cash needs and that 6-12 month buffer. If the buffer evaporates, the plan is too tight.

And just to repeat a thing I said a bit differently: your timeline dictates strategy. If you must sell in 6-12 months, improve for certainty and speed. If you’ve got 3-5 years, you can improve for price. Rates are higher than 2021, buyers’ payment power is capped, and your personal runway, your runway, matters more than the headlines.

Stress-test the numbers: best, base, and bad

Pros sketch this on a napkin first, then tighten it in a spreadsheet. Same here. Don’t be fancy, be honest. You’re trying to avoid surprises, not build the perfect model. And I’ll say it up front: my core philosophy is intellectual humility. We’re modeling ranges, not certainties.

• Best case: minor price softening, 30-60 days on market, minimal concessions. Example: list $600k, sell $590k in 45 days, 7.5% total selling costs (~$44,250), payoff $380k, light prep $3k. Estimated net ≈ $162,750. Now translate that into buying power. If your next place needs 15% down on $700k ($105k) plus ~3% buyer closing costs ($21k), you’re at ~$126k cash outlay, leaving ~$36k for moving, reserves, and stuff you forgot. Good. Check monthly: if you finance ~$595k, your principal & interest at 6.5% is about $3,160/month; at 7.5% it’s ~$3,495 (30-year). That one point difference is +~$335/month, roughly 10-11% higher. Don’t guess, calculate.
• Base case: 2-5 months to sell, 1-2% credits to buyer, inspection fixes. Say you net $150k instead of $162k and you don’t close the buy for 90 days. Update your cash timeline, not just totals: deposits, option/inspection fees, movers, and any overlap days. If the buy closes before the sale funds, map the bridge: HELOC draw or temporary loan? What’s the rate, what’s the limit, what’s your exit date? I once thought, oh it’s only 3 weeks, then the appraisal slid and it became 7. That matters for interest carry.
• Bad case: 5-10% price cut, 6+ months DOM, double payments. Example: $600k list goes $540k after reductions; 8% selling costs; you’re still paying the old mortgage while the new one starts. Can you carry both for 6-9 months without tapping expensive credit? The Federal Reserve reported average credit card APRs around 21% in late 2024; that’s not bridge financing, that’s a wood chipper for cash flow. If the math only works by swiping at 20%+, it doesn’t work.

Rate sensitivity on the buy side (quick math you can repeat): for a $500k loan over 30 years, monthly P&I at 6.5% is roughly $3,160; at 7.5% it’s about $3,495. Same house, same taxes, very different payment. Every 1% rate move shifts payment power on the order of ~10-12% near these levels. And because taxes/HOA/insurance don’t budge with rates, the total payment change can feel smaller on paper, until it doesn’t. Sorry, I’m nitpicking. Point is: run the numbers, don’t feel the numbers.

If your bad case breaks your budget, adjust the plan: either list sooner with sharper pricing and cleaner terms, or hold and rent until cash and rates line up better. Not heroic, just rational.

One more sanity check: line up your after-tax proceeds with your 6-12 month cash buffer. If the buffer evaporates in base or bad case, the strategy is too tight. And yes, it’s annoying to model what-ifs. But the only thing worse than carrying two houses is carrying two houses and pretending it’s fine.

Alternatives to selling: smarter liquidity moves

You don’t have to sell to de-risk. Selling is clean, sure, but it’s also expensive and final. When recession risk perks up, owners who stay in control usually stack a few liquidity tools and keep optionality. I’ll think it through with you, and I’ll flag where people (including me, once in 2010… long story) get tripped up.

• Refi or rate/term tweak, only if it lowers total risk. If you’re sitting on a sub-5% fixed, tread carefully. Freddie Mac (2023) estimated roughly 82% of outstanding mortgages carried rates below 5%. Trading a low fixed for a higher rate just to “simplify” can raise your payment and your risk. But a term tweak (e.g., recast after a principal curtailment, or extend remaining term on a portfolio loan) can drop monthly cash burn without touching the low coupon. If you must refi, say, to remove a balloon, model base and bad cases and make sure the new total payment, reserves, and covenants leave you with at least 6-12 months of runway. No heroics.
• HELOC as emergency backstop (secure it before you need it). Lines tend to tighten when the cycle turns. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index fell about 30% from February to August 2020 as lenders pulled back, and some big banks paused new HELOCs entirely in spring 2020. Same playbook shows up late in cycles. If your credit/income supports it now, open a HELOC and keep it at $0 unless needed. Treat it like a fire extinguisher. Also, know the fine print: lenders can cut or freeze lines if values drop materially or income changes, don’t rely on it for long-term carry. I know, I know, I’m repeating myself, but this one matters.
• Short-term rental or a plain long-term lease to carry costs. Different risk, different headache. Short-term can juice cash in peak seasons, but vacancy and cleaning/maintenance can bite. Long-term is lower stress but locks the rent. Stress-test both: assume 10-20% vacancy and 1% of property value per year for maintenance (old roof? bump it). Run the math at conservative nightly rates, you’ll thank yourself later when a slow shoulder season hits. I’ll come back to taxes on rental income in a second… even though I haven’t brought it up yet. Sorry, brain got ahead of my fingers.
• Bridge loan, only with a clear exit and big buffers. Bridges are like airport coffee: convenient, overpriced, and fine if you’re in and out fast. Expect meaningful fees up front and a rate that feels spicy. If the market stalls, your “3-month” bridge can morph into 9 months, and that carry will sting. Take it only if you’ve got line-of-sight to the sale or perm financing and you’re still okay if timelines slip 3-6 months.
• 1031 exchange (investment property). This can defer capital gains and depreciation recapture, which, yes, can be huge. But the rules are strict: identify replacement property within 45 days and close within 180 days from the sale date. No extensions just because the market got weird. Have backups ready (I like a 3-property list at minimum). And sanity check debt terms on the target; swapping into a higher-rate loan can erase a chunk of the tax benefit on cash flow.
• Assumable loans to boost demand without a price cut. Many FHA and VA loans are assumable with lender/agency approval. If your note is at 3-4%, featuring “assumable at X%” in the listing can widen your buyer pool when rates are sticky. You may need a second for your equity gap, structure matters, but I’ve seen assumptions shave months off market time this year.

Quick enthusiasm spike here because this one saves real money: pair the HELOC backstop with a term recast and a conservative rental plan. That combo gives you liquidity, lower monthly burn, and a credible plan B if the listing sits. It’s not flashy. It just works, most of the time.

One guardrail I use: after the tweaks, can you carry 6-12 months assuming 10-20% rent vacancy, 1% maintenance, insurance up 10% at renewal (common this year), and your bridge/second still gets paid? If not, tighten the plan or scale it back.

Last thing on timing: credit conditions tend to tighten before unemployment peaks. We saw it in 2020 with the MCAI drop, and lenders have been picky again this year with DSCR/bridge deals. If a tool helps, lock it in while you’re still strong on paper. And yeah, I still owe you that tax note: if you convert to a rental, track days of personal use, improvements vs. repairs, and passive loss limits. Boring, but skipping it can cost more than any rate tweak. Teh unglamorous stuff wins recessions.

If you sell in 2025: pricing, timing, and financing realities

Q4 is quirky. You’ll get fewer showings than spring, but the people who do come through are serious. ShowingTime’s historical data (2017-2023 averages) shows November-December traffic runs roughly 25-40% below April-May. That’s not a problem if you plan for it; it just means you play for conversion, not vanity traffic. Translation: make it easy for a qualified, payment‑sensitive buyer to say “yes” fast.

Price to the payment buyers can actually carry

• Payments drive demand more than the list price headline. A quick heuristic: at ~7% on a 30‑yr fixed, every $10,000 in price moves the payment about $65/month. A 2‑1 buydown on a $400,000 loan can cut year‑one payments roughly $440-$460/month (rate steps from ~6.75% to ~4.75%, payment factor moves from ~6.3 to ~5.2 per $1k). Buyers feel that immediately.
• Use comps buyers can finance today, not 2021. If the comp’s HOA/insurance/taxes are lighter than yours, adjust. Insurance renewals have been rising ~10-12% in many states since 2023-2024; show your latest bill so there are no surprises.

Seasonality tactics for Q4 2025 (and a head start on early 2026)

• Pre‑inspection + targeted concessions instead of big list‑price cuts. Fix the “deal killers” (roof leaks, panel issues, visible moisture) and be ready to credit for the rest. You don’t need granite #4; you need a clean inspection summary.
• Make financing stupid‑simple. If you have an FHA/VA loan, check assumability. Most FHA/VA loans are assumable with servicer approval, and FHA/VA have made up roughly 23-25% of originations in 2023-2024 (HMDA). If assumable, headline the actual remaining balance, rate, and required qualification steps. If not, quote buydown options (2‑1, 1‑0) and show total seller cost vs. buyer monthly savings.
• Proof beats promises: put recent insurance and tax bills, condo docs, and any special assessment status in the packet. Buyers are picky right now; you win by removing doubt.
• Prep that moves the needle: curb appeal, lighting, paint, soft staging. Don’t overcapitalize on kitchens/baths this late in the cycle unless something’s actually broken.

Lock your next‑home financing before you list

One note that sounds boring but isn’t: get your next mortgage or HELOC fully underwritten before photos. Credit standards tend to tighten when recession chatter heats up. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index spent long stretches of 2024 near post‑2013 lows (MBA series), and lenders have been picky with DSCR/bridge loans again this year. If your profile is strong now, capture it; don’t assume it’ll be there in January.

Set guardrails like a pro

• Walk‑away floor price: the number where you’d rather rent/hold than sell. Write it down.
• 30/60/90‑day plan: Day 30: minor price improvement or credit a 1‑0 buydown; refresh photos. Day 60: larger concession (closing costs, rate buydown to hit a payment target) and relaunch copy. Day 90: temporary off‑market reset, address any inspection noise, relist with a tighter price band.

I know, this is not the 2021 frenzy. Think like a buyer who lives by the monthly nut, because that’s who’s walking through the door. Make the math obvious, make the house easy to approve, and your odds go up, quietly but reliably.

The no-regrets checklist for a cycle you can’t control

The no‑regrets checklist for a cycle you can’t control

Alright, tie it up clean. The decision isn’t about vibes or what your neighbor got last spring, it’s about cash flow, taxes, and your actual risk capacity right now in Q4. Buyers this year are still payment-first, and affordability never really loosened up like people hoped. The MBA purchase index spent big chunks of 2024 near post‑2013 lows, and activity this fall hasn’t exactly ripped higher, so assume a picky audience and plan like a CFO.

1. Decide on math, not mood: Build a 12‑month cash flow with three scenarios, Base, Soft, and Sloppy. Include PITI, HOA, insurance (don’t forget recent premium jumps), maintenance at 1-2% of value annually, and a 5-8% vacancy/turnover reserve if you rent. If Base barely breaks even and Soft goes red for multiple months, you’re not holding, you’re hoping.
2. If you need certainty, sell earlier with realistic pricing: If your 12‑month plan requires certainty, like you’re buying another place or your liquidity buffer is thin, set a walk‑away floor and move. In slower Q4 traffic, an earlier sale with clear concessions often beats waiting for a perfect January that may not show. One practical lever: pricing to the monthly payment target buyers anchor on; a 1‑point seller buydown typically moves rate ~0.25%-0.375% in many lender sheets, which nudges qualifying power more than a tiny list-price cut.
3. If you’ve got runway and cheap debt, holding can be rational: Sub‑4% 30‑year fixed? That’s real optionality plus inflation protection on the liability side. Renting for a year or two may cover most carrying costs while you wait for a cleaner exit window. Just be honest about capex (older roofs and HVAC don’t care about your spreadsheet) and local rent comps; update them, not once, but monthly.
4. Document your 3-scenario model and update monthly: Put the model in writing. Date-stamp assumptions: rent, DOM, concession norms, insurance quotes, and lender letters. Re-run on the 1st of each month until you transact. Small changes compound, one extra month of vacancy or a higher insurance renewal quietly moves IRR more than people think.
5. Taxes before tactics: Talk to a CPA before you sign a listing agreement. Key pieces:
   • §121 exclusion: up to $250k gain Single / $500k MFJ if you’ve lived there 2 of the last 5 years.
   • Depreciation recapture: prior depreciation on a former rental is recaptured up to 25% federal, surprises a lot of folks.
   • NIIT: 3.8% applies to net investment income above MAGI thresholds ($200k Single / $250k MFJ; statute is stable, check your current-year MAGI).
   • Capital gains bands: 0%, 15%, 20% federally depending on income; states layer on top, CA/NY/etc. can add a lot. Timing across calendar years may matter.

Quick gut check: if you needed this sold by February to sleep at night, you probably needed it listed yesterday with concessions pre-wired. If you can float 12-18 months with cheap debt and decent tenants, you probably don’t need to force it, just manage the asset like a pro.

What to consider next (rabbit holes worth a peek):

• Emergency fund sizing: homeowners with rentals often need 6-12 months of all-in housing costs, not the classic 3-6.
• Laddering Treasuries for near‑term cash: 3-12 month T‑bill ladder for down payment or repair reserves keeps risk low and liquidity predictable.
• Mortgage points math: model breakeven months versus likely hold period; don’t buy points if you might sell or refi inside the breakeven.
• Umbrella insurance: relatively cheap per $1M of coverage and pairs well with renting, lawsuits don’t care that you meant well.

One last thing I’ve learned the hard way: write your decision on one page, goal, constraints, numbers, tripwires. If market feedback breaks your rules (DOM blows past your 60‑day plan, or rent quote comes in 8% light), you already know the next move. That’s how you exit this cycle without second‑guessing yourself in March.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How do I figure out if selling before a recession actually improves my finances?

A: Run it like a mini deal model, not a gut check. 1) Equity: estimate a conservative sale price, subtract mortgage payoff and all costs (broker 5-6%, transfer taxes, prep/repairs). That’s your net proceeds. 2) Cash flow: compare current carrying costs (mortgage, taxes, insurance, HOA, maintenance, near-term capex) to your post-sale housing plan (rent or buy smaller). If selling cuts monthly burn by $X and you can deploy proceeds at Y%, that’s real. 3) Time horizon: if you need the cash in the next 12-18 months (job change, kids’ school move), selling earlier cuts volatility risk. If your horizon is 5+ years, short-term dips matter less. 4) Risk capacity: stress-test a 5-10% price swing and a slower sale; if that keeps you up at night, you’re signaling sell sooner. Quick rule: if your net proceeds ÷ monthly savings (or rent delta) is >60-70 months, the payback of selling is long, consider holding or renting. If it’s <36 months and your job/income is wobbly, selling now usually pencils.

Q: What’s the difference between market risk and personal risk for this decision?

A: Per the article’s frame: market risk is the stuff you can’t control, prices, mortgage rates, and buyer liquidity. Personal risk is what you can shore up fast, job stability, cash reserves, household volatility. Tactically: if market risk is rising (thinner Q4 buyer traffic, rates choppy), you adjust with price, staging, and days-on-market expectations. If personal risk is the issue (low emergency fund, bonus at risk), you fix the balance sheet: build 6-9 months of expenses, line up a HELOC as a bridge, or sell to de‑risk. I tell clients to write two lists: 1) what changes with headlines (ignore), 2) what changes with your actions in 30 days (focus). That separation keeps you from negotiating with yourself halfway through.

Q: Is it better to list now in Q4 or wait until spring?

A: Seasonality is real. The article cites NAR’s unadjusted existing-home sales (2012-2023 average): June activity is roughly one-third higher than December. Buyer traffic usually fades into the holidays, and in 2024, public brokerage dashboards showed softer Q4 buyer activity. Translation: spring generally gives you more eyeballs and slightly faster absorption, but not always a higher net. If your house is turnkey and you can price with precision, listing in early spring often helps. If you’ve got a roof/HVAC that may spook buyers (been there, my roof loves October…), use Q4 to complete repairs, pre-inspect, and gather permits, then list late Feb/Mar. Exception: if your personal risk is elevated (job uncertainty, thin cash), selling in Q4 at a realistic price can be smarter than aiming for a maybe-better spring. Price bands matter too, entry-level inventory can still move in November if it’s clean and correctly priced.

Q: Should I worry about my 3.25% mortgage if I sell, am I giving up something valuable?

A: Yes, that sub-4% note has real option value. If your next purchase requires new financing at a higher rate, the payment jump isn’t just annoying, it’s a present-value hit. Ballpark it: for every $100k of loan, a 3.25% vs 6.5% rate is roughly $190-$210 more per month; discount that spread over your expected holding period to gauge the value you’re surrendering. Options to soften the blow: 1) See if your loan is assumable (some FHA/VA are), that can boost your sale price or speed. 2) Negotiate a seller or builder rate buydown on the next place. 3) Keep the house as a rental if after true carrying costs you net positive cash flow at a realistic rent (don’t forget capex and vacancy). 4) Bridge: sell, rent for 6-12 months, then buy when inventory improves. Don’t force a sale that trades a cheap fixed payment for a pricey one unless the balance-sheet benefits (debt reduction, risk relief) clearly outweigh that rate lock-in.

@article{should-i-sell-my-house-before-a-recession-pro-playbook,
    title   = {Should I Sell My House Before a Recession? Pro Playbook},
    author  = {Beeri Sparks},
    year    = {2025},
    journal = {Bankpointe},
    url     = {https://bankpointe.com/articles/sell-house-before-recession/}
}