Economic Trends

What pros wish everyone knew about CPI, mortgages, and iBuyers Here’s the thing that trips people up every single August CPI week: CPI doesn’t set home prices. Rates do. The CPI print nudges rate expectations, rates change monthly payments, and payments decide who can actually bid. That’s the chain. Ask any loan officer fielding panicked texts after a hot CPI, buyers don’t say “inflation rose 0.x%,” they say “did my payment just jump?” Quick sanity check. Shelter is the elephant in the CPI room, about one-third of the headline basket in 2025 (roughly 34% per BLS). But Shelter CPI is…

Old-school CPI thinking vs. today’s rent reality Old-school macro says this: if CPI cools, rents cool, everybody’s grocery-and-gas-weary budget breathes easier. Clean, linear, almost…too tidy. I grew up on that playbook on the Street, and it worked for long stretches. But 2025 housing is not interested in tidy. It’s a three-clock problem: asking rents for new leases, renewal rents for folks staying put, and CPI’s shelter math. They don’t tick together, and they definitely don’t reset just because a headline inflation print eased. Start with the classic view. CPI down, rent pressure down. It made sense when vacancy, supply, and…

The hidden toll: sticky prices meet fragile credit Here’s the cost most folks skip over: when prices keep inching higher faster than your paycheck, your “real” buying power shrinks. It doesn’t shout at you, it just chips away. And it gets worse when lenders quietly tighten the screws. It’s Q4 2025, holiday budgets are real, and markets are hypersensitive to the August CPI print while credit boxes are narrowing at the worst possible time, when you actually want to spend. Inflation that runs hotter than wage growth erodes purchasing power fast. You don’t need a PhD, basic math does it.…

Old-school budgeting vs. FIRE math: what August CPI really changes Old-school budgeting says set your categories, fix your 50/30/20, and call it a day. FIRE math says your plan lives and dies on real returns, withdrawal rates, and how quickly you adapt when prices shift under your feet. That’s why the August CPI print isn’t just another headline, it’s the scoreboard we check before we pick lineups for Q4. If inflation cools, a 4% withdrawal looks safer and cash ladders can extend; if it re-accelerates, the same budget starts leaking buying power, and equities feel heavier because discount rates refuse…

No, a single jobs revision doesn’t equal “recession tomorrow” No, a single jobs revision doesn’t equal “recession tomorrow.” I get why it feels that way. You wake up, see a big red headline about a downward payroll revision, and your brain fast-forwards to layoffs, credit stress, and the Fed hitting the panic button. I’ve been there. But one revision is not the economy. It’s an update to the scorecard. Here’s the simple version. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) updates payrolls every month as more survey responses roll in, and it performs a benchmark revision once a year that reanchors…