How a Bear Market Affects FIRE Withdrawals and Timing
Wall Street’s quiet fear: it’s not averages, it’s timing Here’s the insider truth: pros don’t lose sleep over average returns. They worry about bad returns showing up at the worst possible time. If you’re chasing FIRE, that “worst time” is the first stretch after you quit the 9-to-5. A bear market right after you stop earning can kneecap a plan that would’ve looked perfectly fine on a spreadsheet. I’ve watched otherwise sensible models crack not because the average was wrong, but because the sequence was cruel. This isn’t abstract. In 2022, the S&P 500 fell roughly 25% peak-to-trough, and the…