Stock Analysis

No, CPI Doesn’t Move Opendoor in a Straight Line It’s tempting to say: CPI runs hot, Opendoor (OPEN) sells off. Clean, simple, and mostly wrong. For an iBuyer, inflation and labor data don’t hit the P&L directly, they filter through mortgage rates, buyer traffic, and the spreads Opendoor sets on each home. There’s a lag. And in Q4 2025, when holiday-season housing already slows, those shocks can look bigger than they are because the base level of transactions is lighter. Here’s the path that actually matters for OPEN: CPI → Fed expectations: Hotter CPI tends to push up rate-cut odds…

How pros actually think about the “rate cuts = housing pop” trade You hear it every time the Fed hints at relief: rate cuts are coming, housing pops, Opendoor flies. Nice story, just not how pros actually run money. The real question is narrower and more practical: which parts of Opendoor’s P&L and multiple are most sensitive to rates, what’s already in the tape, and where are we likely to be wrong if the rate path zigs instead of zags. First, separate the clean, first‑order stuff from the messy, second‑order stuff. First order is mechanical: funding costs and discount rates.…

Planning beats headlines: how I’d set up OPEN after August CPI Planning beats headlines: if you’ve traded Opendoor off every CPI alert on your phone, you know the feeling, up 6% at the open, red by lunch, and you’re left wondering what just happened. Headline-chasing whipsaws you because the stock isn’t reacting to CPI as a trivia contest, it’s reacting to what CPI does to the path of rates and the pace of housing turnover. My simple setup is boring on purpose: tie OPEN to three things, inflation prints → Fed path → mortgage rates → housing activity, and give…